Cross market data interpretation of spot, futures, and options Putting these four groups together reflects the inconsistent attitudes of the futures, futures, and options markets towards this rebound. Let's break down the valuable information from them: one ⃣ Spot: mainly wait-and-see As shown in Figure 1, the rebound in May saw prices and indicators rise synchronously, with real participation from spot funds. And this round of rebound to 6.6w, the volume can continue to shrink, and funds have not kept up. (Note one detail: In mid June, there was a pulse in relative trading volume, corresponding to a concentrated turnover at the end of the decline.) two ⃣ Futures: Systemic ebb tide As shown in Figure 2, the trading volume of both rounds of rebound futures has been decreasing, indicating that the speculative participation in derivatives has been continuously contracting since March. This is a continuation of the deleveraging cycle and has little to do with a single rebound. As shown in Figure 3, after the price approached 6.6w, the 7-day average of long premiums began to decline, indicating that leveraged bulls actively cooled down near the dense trading area above, and their willingness to actively take long positions began to decline. three ⃣ Options: The Fastest Repaired Market As shown in Figure 4, the Put/Call ratio rapidly decreased after 7/14. In addition to factors such as protective put being liquidated or expiring, there should also be funds buying calls for the right side layout. The rapid exit of panic hedging demand is the only clear signal among the three markets that they are no longer afraid of falling. Summary: one ⃣ All combined together, the panic is fading, but confidence has not yet returned, and emotions are in a vacuum zone between the two. two ⃣ The driving force behind this round of upward trend is more likely to come from short covering and passive uplift under low liquidity. After the selling pressure is reduced, a small amount of buying can drive the price. But we haven't seen any strong new demand yet. three ⃣ The futures market also lacks crowded long positions for waterfall clearing, and there is insufficient fuel for long tail declines. four ⃣ Short term rebound may still have inertia, but in my personal opinion, it is still more appropriate to view it as a technical repair for a bear market. five ⃣ When the price approaches the densely traded area above (including near the average cost line of short-term chips), pay attention to the trading rhythm. six ⃣ Systemic decline in activity and exit of hedging demand are common "no man's land" features in the later stages of bear markets. The probability of the market entering a bottoming out stage is increasing, but bottoming out is a process. (PS: Due to limited space, more detailed data cannot be included in the article and can only be used as a reference on a simple framework)