Why do we believe BTC will soon return to its peak of $126000! Firstly, let's talk about the reason: the bond market is losing its anchoring function and will become an important support for BTC to reach new highs. Let's take a look at the recent macro market situation, which is actually quite strange: ·The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% ·Oil prices plummet, falling below $60 ·Employment has been experiencing negative growth for two consecutive months ·Enterprise bankruptcy and rising default rate When these things are combined, there is only one answer in the textbook: the 10-year US Treasury yield should quickly decline! Because the bond market will trade recession+interest rate cuts+deflation ahead of schedule. But what's happening now? The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has been stubbornly stuck at a high of 4.16%. This is very strange and abnormal. This indicates that there is a large amount of funds selling US bonds, driving down their prices and resulting in high US bond yields. From the perspective of bond marketization, this is no longer a matter of predicting whether the US economy is doing well, but rather whether this country is reliable or not. From the past experience, if I stand in the perspective of a bond trader and follow the textbook experience: "The economy may be in recession, buy treasury bond to avoid risks". But looking around for a week, I found that I bought treasury bond, but the price of treasury bond also fell, and I became a potential victim of risk aversion. So now many people are thinking about the question: "If I buy 10-year treasury bond, will the dollars I get back 10 years later be worth it?" This is the essential transformation of the problem, from a cyclical hedging issue to a solvency issue. Decline → Decrease in tax revenue Unemployment → Rising social security expenditures Real estate → default increases Enterprise → Debt Chain Breaks So the fiscal gap is not shrinking, but exponentially widening. How else can the government choose? Smart money is actually in the bond market, and it has already been chosen for us. Option A: Allow debt to be cleared (real deflation) Enterprise collapse Bank turnover Real estate liquidation debt restructuring Wealth evaporation This path is theoretically 'healthy', But politically it is suicide, and from a personal judgment, the bond market simply does not believe that the United States will choose this path. Option B: Printing money solution (combining finance and currency) The result of this path is only one: Debt cannot be stopped at all, it can only be diluted by inflation; The fiscal deficit continues to widen, and at least until next year's midterm elections, there must be no problems during the political cycle. So now the bond market is essentially struggling. On the one hand, Smart Money is selling off US bonds due to its bearish outlook, while on the other hand, the Federal Reserve is starting to repurchase and buy US bonds, offsetting each other. To maintain a beautiful foam. That's why even though economic data is calling for a "recession," yields refuse to fall. Finally, when the 'risk-free rate' expires, money can only find another anchor. In the past 40 years, the global financial system has an absolute anchor: US treasury bond bonds=risk-free assets. But what we are seeing now is that bond prices are falling, real interest rates are unstable, and fiscal credit is repeatedly depleted. So smart capital began to ask a very primitive question: "If treasury bond is not safe, what is the best choice for allocation?" So we can see that gold and silver, as well as a large number of non-ferrous metals, have soared recently. Gold has broken through 4300 dollars/ounce and silver has broken through 66 dollars/ounce. One day, their transactions will become more crowded, and their prices will become more frothy. BTC will certainly become the best configuration option in the market. At that time, the significance of digital gold will gradually become apparent. In the past two weeks, we have seen Wood Sister, TOM LEE, and Micro Strategy all making great efforts to purchase and bargain. Perhaps that's why we should keep up with the smart people.