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TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Nov 28, 2025 13:03
The fierce jump of Takashi Hayao this time is not only due to the long-term infiltration of the Japanese right-wing, but also closely related to the deterioration of Japan's internal economic situation. The value created by Japan since the Plaza Accord was lost three decades ago has been heavily exploited by the United States, and Trump's 550 billion extreme blackmail is even more unbearable. Therefore, there are desperate attempts in military and political affairs, both attempts to break away from the dog chain, and doubts about what protection fees can change. After weak demand for last week's 21.3 trillion yen bond auction and almost no sales of ultra long term bonds, Japan's fiscal situation is once again under pressure. This week, the cabinet passed an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen, of which 11.7 trillion yen will be raised through the issuance of new bonds. In order to absorb the pressure of this new financing, the Japanese government was forced to urgently adjust the bond issuance structure for this fiscal year. The Ministry of Finance announced: Two year treasury bond issued an additional 300 billion yen Five year treasury bond issued an additional 300 billion yen The most crucial thing is that the issuance of short-term fiscal bills has surged by 6.3 trillion yen The long term (10-40 years) remains unchanged. This means: In the case where investors in the long-term bond market refuse to continue buying, the Japanese government has completely turned to the "short debt" model, using short-term financing to temporarily alleviate the immediate pressure. This is very bearish for the Japanese yen, which means that volatility will intensify. Although the Bank of Japan has not yet intervened in foreign exchange, not intervening will only allow the yen to continue to depreciate. At the same time, the market's suspicion of a rate hike in December is increasing. If it continues to deteriorate, it is inevitable that Japan will once again experience a triple kill of stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. At that time, Japan will be forced to raise interest rates, intervene in foreign exchange, expand its finances, and bear greater financing costs. Whether the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise interest rates preventively or passively intervene in times of crisis will greatly test its wisdom and political resources. Gaoshi Zaomiao's current approach is indeed taking risks. She attempted to break free from the shackles of "economic colonization" by gambling on the country's fortune (military hardline+massive fiscal release). Unfortunately, Japan no longer has any chips in its hands. Converting debt from long-term to short-term means that Japan has voluntarily given up the buffer of time and directly exposed itself to the barrel of the US dollar interest rate hike cycle. This is not like a breakout, but more like a "self destructing" resistance chosen to maintain the last bit of political dignity.
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Dec 01, 09:12Japan plans to tax cryptocurrency trading income at a 20% rate.
Nov 19, 23:36Nominee for CFTC Chair Selig Expresses Views on Crypto Asset Regulation
Nov 12, 11:48JPYC plans to invest 80% of issuance revenue in Japanese government bonds

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