Recently, there have been several macroeconomic highlights: 1) The dovish faction of the Federal Reserve has completely gained the upper hand, although it has been clear since personal speeches by Williams and Jefferson about December; 2) After two years of communication between China and the United States, the probability of direct military action between China and Japan will be further reduced (local friction will not be less). Of course, the logical support for direct military action between China and Japan in the short term is weak, which has been discussed before; 3) The Russia Ukraine peace agreement seems to be progressing smoothly, and the parties to the revised agreement have not refused to discuss some of the terms, indicating a high probability of reaching an agreement; 4) The announcement of the White House's AI Genesis Plan is equivalent to another round of policy support; The result of these factors above is; The probability of interest rate cuts has increased significantly, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen below 4%, leading to a decline in real interest rates. As discussed yesterday, the loose trading driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts should be able to last until early December. Of course, this turning point occurred last Friday night. Afterwards, the market will play three games: 1) If it were a hawkish interest rate cut, how hawkish would the statement be? We discussed other points at the December meeting yesterday. 2) What is the inflation trend of key economic data released and displayed after the interest rate meeting? Determine the subsequent pace 3) The game of evaluating healthcare subsidies in mid December in Congress has escalated again, which determines whether the temporary funding bill can continue to be effective after the end of January next year. If the market no longer worries about the government returning to a shutdown, many expectations will be completely different. This article is sponsored by the meme trading tool http://(xxyy. io) | Fast trading, versatile features, and can be used to monitor on chain wallets @useXXYYio