福禄寿 UV DAO|11月 12, 2025 00:04
Listening to the Space last night was super interesting. One person thinks next year will be a bear market, another thinks it’ll be a bull market, or if the short-term goes a certain way, then the long-term will follow accordingly.
I never predict short-term movements because the accuracy rate is infinitely close to 50%. I’m a believer in bull and bear cycles. Of course, the four-year bull-bear cycle has already been broken, but the cycle still exists. Under what circumstances will it be a bull market? Under what circumstances will it be a bear market? What determines the market trends? Policies, liquidity (rate cuts, money printing, balance sheet reduction, balance sheet expansion), and the economic cycle itself.
I’m fully invested because I believe this phase might be a temporary bottom. After all, rate cuts have already started, balance sheet reduction will stop in December, the Fed chair will change next year, and balance sheet expansion is highly likely. Trump will fire up the money printer! My prediction is that the K-line for the next year will trend upward, though the process might be a bit bumpy—that’s all.
I don’t think BTC, ETH, or SOL (which just got its spot ETF approved not long ago) with institutional backing will drop too much. So, 90% of my portfolio is in these, and the remaining 10% is in altcoins purely for the thrill, to boost my dopamine levels.
Of course, I could be wrong, but plan your trades and trade your plan. Let time reveal the results!
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