After the market crash on October 11 and the continued decline in late October, liquidity in the cryptocurrency market has significantly decreased. Many active investors suffered heavy losses, and market expectations for Q4 have broadly shifted from positive to negative. However, crypto options data shows that while major participants are no longer pricing in a strong market rebound, they also haven’t positioned heavily for a market drop. Instead, they expect the market to remain range-bound. Some potential positive factors are still at play: The U.S. government shutdown is unlikely to last long, and its resolution could help restore market confidence. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at its next meeting. Meanwhile, some negative factors are becoming increasingly apparent: The prolonged rally in the U.S. stock market has accumulated more and more risks. If the U.S. stock market undergoes a correction, ETFs and DAX tied to cryptocurrencies may experience capital outflows, further tightening market liquidity. After the October 11 crash, some undisclosed institutional defaults could emerge at any time. The recent wave of defaults in DeFi projects and stablecoins might be warning signs of a broader crisis. On-chain activity deserves close attention, especially abnormal transfers involving major institutions and DeFi protocols, as these activities could trigger chain reactions in the market if left unchecked.