Good days haven't arrived yet, and it's time to endure some tough ones again. Morning chat with a friend: 1) The Fed's RMP bond-buying and balance sheet expansion is a good thing, but it will take time for reserves to rise above $3 trillion—probably one to two months. 2) Oracle's earnings report looks bad, and market concerns are increasing, especially regarding AI spending. 3) Next week is packed with data and events: November's non-farm payroll and inflation data, the Senate vote on Affordable Care Act subsidies, and Japan's interest rate hike—all potential disruptions. 4) The dot plot showing one rate cut has limited impact; the focus is on the new chair. The new chair's nomination will likely be announced around Christmas or early next year, and that's when the market will start speculating on future rate cut expectations. 5) The SLR unbinding new rules will take effect in early April next year. Some banks will start transitioning to the new rules in Q1, which could gradually push down long-term bond yields. RMP buys short-term bonds to replenish liquidity. SLR unbinding will lower long-term bond yields, but it will take some time to get there.