Orange Evening Interpretation 7.8 Last night, Trump sent a tariff letter to 14 countries. Among them, the imposition of 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea exceeded market expectations, which was an important reason for the sudden decline of the market last night. This tariff rate is the epitome of Trump's authoritarianism in this coming to power. Now Trump has basically abandoned the previous pro European, pro Japanese and South Korean strategies, but has taken the policy of "listening to who's fist" For example, after coming to power, he made a direct gesture to the goose, and then blamed the President of Ukraine. Even more than ending the war, Chuanzi was more concerned about whether the support of the United States could be paid back. So there was the only U.S. - Ukraine mineral agreement. Later tariffs and China's challenge found that China did not give face. Trump directly contacted TACO, and collected all the extra taxes. Now, 55% of the tariffs on China, 20% of them were fentanyl, and 10% were left over from the previous term. This is equivalent to only 25% of the so-called equivalent tariffs on China this time, which is basically the same as Japan and South Korea. You should know that Japan and South Korea have always been close partners of the United States. This is also the reason why Big A rebounded today. Now Trump is like collecting protection fees according to its strength, so there are various Southeast Asian taxes of 40%. Because it is too weak, it can also be inferred that the rate of the future negotiations with the EU is good news. The Portuguese Finance Minister even concluded that the final tariffs of the United States and the EU will be lower than 10%. Japan, South Korea and China must continue to negotiate later, and it is estimated that the final mutual tariffs will be reduced a bit. Theoretically, the tariffs of several large trading partners will eventually match the tariffs of the United States and the United States. Last night, Trump confirmed that the tariff limit was postponed to August 1, which is good. Today, I also saw an analysis by UBS on the US tariffs, which he believes is equivalent to levying a 1.5% GDP tax, causing global growth to fall to a historical low of an annualized growth rate of 1.3%; The cyclical depreciation of the US dollar is not a long-term trend; The impact of tariff inflation will be reflected in the July CPI; The European stock market has a significant valuation advantage over the US stock market, with a price to earnings ratio discount of 25%; Central banks around the world are generally shifting towards loose policies to cope with tariff shocks; It is expected that China will have a policy interest rate cut of 20-30 basis points in the second half of the year. Musk's share price has been falling for several days because of the founding of the American Party. Last night, it dropped by at most 8%, and Lao Ma's personal assets have directly shrunk by 15 billion. I remember that one month ago, before Lao Ma publicly fought with Trump, not long after he left Doge, he once announced that he would devote 100% of his energy to the company and return to the state of sleeping in the company. It seems that this commitment can not be fulfilled. In addition to forwarding the company's issues, Lao Ma's Twitter now mainly talks about the American Party and various Yin Yang Trump Epstein events. It seems that most of Lao Ma's energy is now focused on fighting with Trump. Trump didn't hide anything. Last night, the Ministry of Justice and the FBI directly sent a document saying that the Epstein case was closed and filed, and no corruption and criminal clues were found. Basically, it was announced that as long as Trump did not step down, the case would be closed. It is said that Musk has already met with Yang Anze, who had previously run as a Democratic presidential candidate. In addition, Mark Cuban publicly supports the American Party in the media and has also appointed a presidential candidate, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase. It seems that the American Party has many potential allies. Ma has been committed to challenging the impossible all his life and is likely to see this as a new entrepreneurship. For Tesla stock, if Ma announces that he will not participate in politics in a few days, it will definitely rebound. If he takes out billions of dollars to form a political party and get a few seats in the midterm elections, it is also a high probability event. I think we can pay attention to Tesla's pullback. In addition, there is a Grok4 live press conference on Thursday, which is also a positive. In the currency circle, because the US stock market opened, ETF institutions began to buy again, but it has been closed for three days. Last night, the inflow of funds from the big cake was only 210 million, which is still too little. The inflow of ETF from Ethereum was 6200w, which is OK. From the market value ratio, it must be more than the big cake. It can be seen that institutions are more interested in ETH. Last night, sbet rose by 12.3%. BTBT also increased by 13% because it announced the sale of BTC to buy ETH. In addition, the MEME on the Ethereum chain has been very strong recently. The $ap should be the largest gold dog in recent weeks. The fdv rushed to more than 40m, and the sol chain in the same period. The concept of the American Party did not come out. Last night, the US government tested the transfer of ETH to coinbase, which was considered as a negative impact last night. However, there was no more information about the need to sell coins. After all, Trump's crypto reserves were not allowed to sell coins; Last night, Sol's ETF was postponed again. Originally, the SEC had urged various institutions to submit documents two days ago and set a deadline for submission. Everyone thought that the SEC was in a hurry and Sol ETF might be approved soon, but it was still postponed last night. In addition, the pump was exposed by Gate last night that it is about to be sold to retail investors with a total financing of 600 million yuan and a valuation of 4 billion yuan. However, Gate was quickly deleted, probably not ready yet. It is said that the official fundraising time is next week, and it is expected to be raised in BN, BG, OKX, BYBIT, GATE. This scale of financing is a major blow to market liquidity, but it is also a good opportunity to change positions, especially for friends who have many junk imitations in their hands. I suggest selling it now and holding U to participate in the pump's public fundraising. You will definitely thank me in a month; After the pump, it's WLFI. The students who participated in the first round should have a return of 8-10 times. Currently, the valuation given by PolyMarket is 13 billion yuan. As a project mainly promoted by Eric, the market value of this project exceeds that of Meme Trump, which is a high probability event. In the last few rounds of financing, the investment was several hundred million yuan, and the valuation was also above 10 billion yuan. If it opens up at 10 billion yuan, it's hard to say whether it can be offset or not. After all, the expectations have already been fully met, and it can be considered as an asset allocation option for large investors. It's still difficult to expect high multiples of returns, unless the market value of USD1 exceeds USDC and USDT in the future, which is an opportunity.