There are two spaces today, so I may not be able to express my views in the first place when the non farm payroll data is released. Therefore, before the data is released, personally speaking, the most critical data for non farm payroll are: Unemployment rate>number of employed people>wage data Because both the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's speech consider the unemployment rate as an important factor in measuring the US economy, and even Powell stated at the last interest rate meeting that if the unemployment rate does not rise, he will not consider additional interest rate cuts. So the unemployment rate is a very important data for the Federal Reserve. Currently, the previous value is 4.2%, and the market expectation is 4.3%. Although it has only increased by 0.1%, the market may take the path of "expecting an economic downturn and the Federal Reserve defending interest rate cuts". Of course, this is what the market thinks, and it may not necessarily be what the Federal Reserve will implement. This is the same principle as ADP Data-3.3, which is to handle funerals with joy and use bad data as good data (short-term). Therefore, my personal judgment is: 4.2% (economic stability)<=unemployment rate<=4.3% (downward economic expectations)<=4.5% (upward recession expectations) In human terms, if the unemployment rate is 4.2% or lower, it means that the resilience of the US economy is good. Although it reduces the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates continuously, at least the economy is stable. If it is greater than 4.2% but less than 4.5%, the probability of a downturn in the US economy is high, and the market will think that the Federal Reserve still has a chance to defend itself and use interest rate cuts to reduce the economic downturn. But if it is higher than 4.5%, it exceeds the Federal Reserve's expectations, because the Federal Reserve's expectation for the neutral value of the unemployment rate is 4.5%. Although it will increase the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, at the same time, the market expects the probability of an economic recession to rise. Then there is the number of employed people, which is definitely the higher the better. The higher the number, the better. The higher the number, the more stable the US economy is, the more people have jobs, the stable the social order, and the wages are not bad. The higher the wages, although it represents more stubborn inflation, it also indicates that the US economic situation is still good. Enterprises are willing to pay high wages because they have better profits. However, if wages decline, economic expectations will be poor. Of course, these are my personal judgments and may not be accurate. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex