Phyrex
Phyrex|Jul 03, 2025 20:48
The non farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, possibly the largest gap between the US and ADP in history. The decline in unemployment rate and the increase in employment demonstrate the resilience of the US economy, while also further lowering expectations of interest rate cuts in July and September. CME's pricing for not cutting interest rates in July has exceeded 95%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates in September has also increased to 32%, causing market sentiment to contract. At the same time, the tax reduction and expenditure bill promoted by Trump has been passed in the House of Representatives, which is basically equivalent to the "beautiful bill" has been implemented. In the short term, the market is in a good mood, although the long-term financial burden will increase; Beisen also spoke out to pressure the Federal Reserve, even predicting a "significant drop in September". Although he does not fully agree, such remarks still have short-term effects on boosting the market. As long as there are no equivalent tariffs next week, BTC's consolidation range is still healthy and no systemic risks have been identified for the time being.
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