Re evaluate Circle?Have all the big players taken action?! Recently, major players have covered Circle for the first time, Bernstein gave the most optimistic target price of $230 directly, JPMorgan is similar to Goldman Sachs, with one 80 and one 83, which is equivalent to cutting Circle in half. The optimistic logic is basically 1) stablecoin cross-border payments, 2) emerging market dollarization, and 3) tokenized finance. It is expected that the industry scale will expand from the current $240 billion to the trillion level. The disagreement lies in Bernstein's extreme optimism, believing that Circle has economies of scale and compliance advantages, and can occupy 30% of the 4 trillion stablecoin scale by 2035, and then estimate back with DCF to obtain a target price of $230. However, both Xiaomo and Goldman Sachs believe that the ceiling of TAM still needs to be discussed: 1) the actual penetration rate of cross-border payments is less than 0.1%, and the efficiency improvement of the existing system (SWIFT) may squeeze the space for stablecoins; 2) More than 80% of the current USDC circulation relies on encrypted trading scenarios, while traditional scenarios such as B2B payments are slow to implement. From a competitive perspective, Bernstein believes that Coinbase+Finance accounts for 40% of USDC's circulation, forming a liquidity black hole (new entrants find it difficult to establish an equivalent ecosystem). The GENIUS Act lists Tether as a "foreign issuer" and Circle as the only fully compliant USD stablecoin with regulatory monopoly. However, Xiaomo and Goldman Sachs have warned that banks and payment giants Visa/MasterCard may use existing networks to divert the market, and tokenized currency funds (such as BlackRock's BUIDL) may erode USDC demand. On the issue of interest rate sensitivity, Bernstein believes that the growth of USDC scale can offset the impact of interest rate decline, but both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs emphasize that interest rate volatility is the core risk (Goldman Sachs estimates that a 100bps interest rate cut will reduce youth income by $600 million), and the low interest rate environment may continue to suppress profits. Bernstein's main optimistic bet is that the stable currency will become the bottom currency of the Internet (Bernstein has always been very optimistic about cryptocurrency). The VC style valuation method is adopted, which is calculated back with a market size of $4 trillion. Xiaomo and Goldman Sachs emphasized the visibility of 3-year profits, valued using estimated PE, and refused to pay a premium for distant TAM, so they gave a halved price. Brothers, what do you think? On which side!?