I don't think it's just M 🐻 @ Murphy Chen 888 and Guilin 🐴 @ Guilin_Chen_ has a problem with some of the contents mentioned in the quotation. It is normal for many basin friends in the market to express their confusion in the face of the current data, Powell's continuous voice and the recent global event of turning over Shaobing (Baked cake in griddle) with excessive information density. Not to mention us, the elites at the top of the pyramid may also be walking, watching, and feeling the stones as they cross the river. The interests of Powell and Trump are not consistent. Powell does not want to be the person who strangles the crisis in the bud, that is to say, he does not want to be the brother of Bian Que, the top master who treats people before they get sick. After all, it's more beneficial to have a good reputation than to wait until one's illness is cured. According to the most normal and politically neutral timeline, the US economy must have encountered problems first before considering using tariffs to solve them. However, the tariff stick did not land successfully, and problems should have arisen in the middle. But who would have thought that Trump is indeed a businessman who can bend and stretch and turn over Shaobing (Baked cake in griddle) at a great speed, and the speed of light is compatible with China. That is to say, if the timeline continues before May 12th, the US economic crisis may erupt in June. But the 90 day tariff extension has pushed back the script that could have caused inflation due to a shortage of goods and led to a thunderstorm today. Powell's recent announcement to readjust the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has several implications: The 2020 framework currently in use was developed in the context of low interest rates and low inflation during the pandemic, and is no longer suitable for the current environment. It must be adjusted 2. Reiterate that the Federal Reserve needs to focus on the two fundamental points of employment and inflation, emphasizing its professionalism and independence. Both Chuanzi and Master Bao actually hope that the thunder of the economic crisis will burst and come to a good end to rescue the market as soon as possible, but neither wants to take the blame. 4. So the accumulation of systemic risks in the market and the natural triggering of black swans is the best 5. If it doesn't explode naturally, continue to make a fuss about tariffs and explode 6. Anyway, if we don't plan to loosen our grip on interest rate cuts or wait for a market crash to rescue the market, it's better to take the opportunity to be more aggressive in order to recharge the authority consumed by the Federal Reserve in recent years and leave it as a backup for the future 7. Changing the framework will require several months of research, and if the results are expected by the end of summer, it seems quite possible to cut interest rates in September. At that time, even if the economy does not have any problems, the Federal Reserve may not wait any longer and will lower prices first. The current monetary policy framework of the Federal Reserve has shown more of a "disaster relief" feature in the past few years, but is currently adjusting towards a "prevention" direction. That is to say, the Federal Reserve currently does not have a preventive responsibility and should distance itself in advance. 8. In this way, even if the economic crisis is nipped in the bud due to the failure to cut interest rates early in the future, the Federal Reserve can still say that it is adhering to the 2% principle to distance itself from the situation. After all, a deterministic quantitative indicator is more convincing than subjective will, and even if something goes wrong, one can also clean themselves up. 9. It's still expected management, the clouds and mist of every day make it difficult for you to guess and see through, the thunder, rain, and dew are all Jun En 10. Currently, the interest rate cuts in June and December are too hawkish and too dovish, so wouldn't it be beautiful to have a (6+12)/2=September interest rate cut? In recent days, Chuanzi has made a lot of small money in the Middle East's prince country, which is enough for the United States to continue the wave and give him enough time to plan the next move 12. Overall, it is possible to cut interest rates in July and September, and the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring market changes. Anyway, they are both in a dilemma and have repeatedly stated that they will immediately cut interest rates if something happens, so it will be a waste of time. 13. In terms of operation, since there will still be one clearance sooner or later, it will be the last drop. So the follow-up can be based on observing a package of data, such as whether the US stock index will reach a new high for Bitcoin. 14. Currently, gold and Bitcoin are competitive assets with negative price correlations, but in a systemic crisis, all assets may decline simultaneously. If there is a final drop, we don't need to worry unnecessarily about the last chance to escape and cause tension, nor do we need to feel particularly anxious about stepping out. The current market, especially the upward trend of 97, is more like driving up shipments, waiting for a period of time at a high level to exhaust the patience of bears before falling. This means that the smart money mentioned earlier may hide its escape under the high emotions and liquidity caused by high positions, especially paying attention to whether institutions and retail investors have changed hands. So currently, high volatility is still the main trend, and it is unlikely to break through historical highs rashly when the timing is not ripe (how can we play when the situation is really relaxed). The specific timing of the decline still needs to be closely monitored by market sentiment and unexpected events.