
Phyrex|May 15, 2025 09:47
I strongly agree with Brother Wu's view that not only the cryptocurrency market, but also the entire risk asset market is in the same logic, and the biggest uncertainty comes from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
One of the core reasons for the Federal Reserve's hesitation is Trump's tariff policy. Although there are still factors such as tax cuts and geopolitics, the transmission path of tariffs is the shortest, directly affecting short-term inflation expectations.
Without considering tariffs, the inflation data in April shows that the inflation in the United States has shown a substantial downward trend. So if the tariff factor is excluded, it is the normal path for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in May or June. But because no one knows whether Trump will change in the next step, Powell dare not act rashly.
Because once a rash interest rate cut is triggered by tariffs and inflation is reignited, Powell may cry.
Ultimately, the essence of monetary policy is cyclical switching, from tightening to easing and then back and forth. History has repeatedly proven that what truly drives a large-scale bull market is not logic or consensus, but sufficient liquidity.
Whether it's altcoins, small cap stocks (such as Russell 2000), or high volatility growth assets, they all rely on the liquidity flood brought about by monetary easing.
To put it simply, during times of tightening, prices may rise, but only during times of easing, prices will rise even better.
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