It's time to enjoy Lao Bao's literary speech again tonight. This is the first speech after the tariff has been added The main content of the speech includes How will the Federal Reserve uphold its tradition of independent decision-making in the face of Trump's tariff policies and pressure from the White House's "change of leadership"? Against the backdrop of falling inflation but increasing recession risk, will Powell's expectation of interest rate cuts change? 3. The internal "eagle dove battle" within the Federal Reserve is gradually intensifying. Will the aggressive interest rate cuts advocated by officials such as Waller affect decision-making? The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 81.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June is 60.1%.