Market sentiment has hit rock bottom, what should we do next? Li Ce Investment Research Circle posts a long article https://pc. (fenchuan8.com)/ /share? TzId=101074&dtId=11823361&yqm=DGTIQ Part of the content was posted on Twitter: Among Trump's policies, tariff and expenditure reduction (what D.O.G.E is doing) are tightening policies, while tax reduction, deregulation and interest rate reduction are expansionary policies. In the last term of office, Trump first relaxed and then tightened (promoted the tax reduction bill in 17 years and launched the Sino US trade war in 18 years); In the second term of office starting this year, Trump tightened up first and then loosened up (he started efficiency reform, cut spending and launched a comprehensive tariff war at the beginning of his term of office; while tax reduction bills and deregulation are still in the process, which takes time). At the end of January to the end of February, the efficiency reform in full swing caused many disputes. At the beginning of March, Trump said that "a scalpel rather than a machete" meant that it had corrected the previous radical actions. If there were corrective actions, it meant that the follow-up pace might not be so radical, and it also meant that Trump would consider the attitude of the market and the public. What should we look at next? The key point is whether Trump's policy strength and pace are radical or moderate. In fact, looking back at the tariff policies implemented in the two months since taking office, there haven't been many that have actually been implemented despite their loud calls. So there may be several situations that follow: 1) Trump's tariff policy has been eased a bit (high intensity tariffs are concentrated in a few vulnerable countries, most of which are not so high), and the response of other countries has not been so great. The CPI in March was not as strong (a hedge between the rebound in commodity inflation caused by tariffs and the possible contraction of service sector inflation caused by pessimistic consumer confidence) 2) Trump's tough policy (a comprehensive and undifferentiated tariff policy) triggered fierce reactions from rival countries. So if inflation expectations continue to rise and the Federal Reserve has no reason to cut interest rates, the market will really have to revise its current expectations of interest rate cuts. There is a high probability that other situations will involve swinging and wavering between 1) and 2) as mentioned above. Beyond 1 and 2, it depends on when the subsequent expansionary policies of tax reduction and deregulation will be implemented, and interest rate cuts are highly correlated with the expected trend driven by 1 and 2.