Author: Bu Shuqing, Wall Street Watch

The US stock market is unlikely to reach new highs in the short term as funds are flowing out of this year's best-performing semiconductor stocks and shifting towards AI hyperscalers.

Michael Wilson, Chief Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out in a recent report that the momentum in the semiconductor sector is fading, and investors are beginning to turn towards AI supercomputing giants that have underperformed this year, including Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

He believes this rotation is occurring against a backdrop of weak overall market fluctuations, which will continue to put pressure on the major indices. Wilson also maintains the year-end price target of the S&P 500 at 8,000 points, indicating a potential increase of about 7% from the current level.

The direct impact of this judgment on the market is that the chip stocks that previously led the AI rally now face valuation pressure, while supercomputing giants are expected to become a new landing spot for funds due to their strong core businesses. At the same time, JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka shares a similar view, believing that the market's upward momentum will extend beyond the technology sector in the second half of the year.

Fading Chip Momentum and Emerging Valuation Pressures

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen nearly 14% since hitting an all-time high last month, with growing concerns about a valuation bubble. Nevertheless, the index is still up 123% since last September, reflecting the magnitude of the previous gains.

Micron Technology released an unexpectedly optimistic sales forecast last month but failed to boost chip stocks' continued rise, further confirming the sector's fading momentum. Currently, investors are waiting for comments from companies like NVIDIA for more insights into AI chip demand.

Wilson pointed out that the disintegration of momentum is occurring in companies with larger weights in the indices, which will keep the major US benchmark indices under pressure in the short term. The S&P 500 index has gradually retreated since peaking in early June.

Supercomputing Giants: A Valuation Gap in the AI Ecosystem

Wilson stated that he is now more inclined towards supercomputing giants rather than semiconductor-related stocks. He believes that companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta have attractiveness in the AI ecosystem, primarily because their strong core businesses provide solid support.

In contrast, according to Bloomberg data, a basket of supercomputing giants compiled by UBS Group has fallen 2% since last September, clearly contrasting with the gains in the semiconductor sector, which also suggests that this group has relative room for catch-up.

However, Wilson also expects that supercomputing giants may begin to lower their expectations for capital expenditure plans in response to recent market concerns about excessive investment in AI. Capital expenditure outlook will become a focal issue for investors in the next stage.

Expanding Rotation, Opportunities Emerging Beyond Technology

Wilson's rotation logic is not limited to the supercomputing sector. He is also optimistic about consumer discretionary, transportation, and biotechnology sectors benefiting from capital outflow from chip stocks.

JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka shares Wilson's viewpoint, believing that the market's upward momentum will extend beyond the technology sector in the second half of the year. "AI is unlikely to be the only story in the market," Matejka wrote in a research report.

It is worth mentioning that Wilson previously accurately predicted that the US stock market would maintain resilience amidst geopolitical risks due to strong corporate earnings, which adds some reference value to his current judgment. His year-end target price for the S&P 500 is 8,000, indicating a potential increase of about 7% from the current level, but short-term volatility risks cannot be ignored.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。