Author: Zen, PANews

During the World Cup, trading volumes and user activity on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have continued to rise, pushing sports events towards more popular consumer scenarios. In this wave of enthusiasm, another product pathway has captured attention within the prediction market.

One representative of this pathway is the Japanese app MIRAIMA. It does not require users to invest cash, but rather allows participation in future event predictions through points, with rewards based on the outcomes. About seven months after its launch, MIRAIMA has attracted nearly one million monthly active users, becoming the most notable sample in Japan's points-based prediction market.

Similar ideas have also begun to enter the sights of major tech companies. Meta is developing an internal prediction market application called Arena and is exploring the possibility of collaboration with Polymarket and Kalshi.

How MIRAIMA Attracted One Million Monthly Active Users in Seven Months

MIRAIMA is operated by the Japanese company Masentic, which was established in 2021, focusing on application planning, development, and operation. Now regarded as one of Masentic's main services, MIRAIMA was launched on November 19 last year as a restructured prediction market application for Japanese users, allowing them to predict future events on themes such as social news, sports results, politics, economy, and entertainment, with points awarded based on prediction results.

Seven months after its launch, MIRAIMA has attracted nearly one million monthly active users. Similar to the growth drivers seen on Polymarket and Kalshi platforms, MIRAIMA's growth is primarily fueled by major sporting events, Japanese elections, and the engagement of young users in prediction topics.

However, in terms of participation process, MIRAIMA is lighter and does not require monetary investment. Users first earn points by watching in-app advertisements, playing games, and completing tasks, and then can use these points to predict future events like “election results” and “sports outcomes.” If their predictions are correct, the points will increase and can be used for redeeming gift vouchers or points on other platforms.

Based on Japan's regulatory system, MIRAIMA also emphasizes that under the guidance of a large law firm, it has been designed according to Japan's criminal law regarding gambling offenses and relevant regulations such as the “Prize Money Representation Act.” This act aims to prevent unhealthy competition caused by prizes (money or items offered as promotional means) and protects the interests of the general consumer, thus imposing restrictions and prohibitions on the provision of prizes. Excessively luxurious prizes could lead consumers to purchase items they did not intend to buy.

In terms of product form, MIRAIMA resembles a combination of news trivia, points rewards, and prediction markets. Its App Store page describes it as “prediction market × rewards application,” where users can participate in daily future questions covering sports, weather, politics, entertainment, technology, and more, with results available for discussion via the comment feature with other users.

During this World Cup period, MIRAIMA's official website showcases numerous football prediction markets. For example, matches such as Canada vs. Morocco, Switzerland vs. Algeria, Australia vs. Egypt, and Argentina vs. Cape Verde are all displayed in percentage odds and participation numbers. Its page language, category division, and probability display are similar to those of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, with the underlying financial mechanism replaced by a points system.

Meta Might Enter the Market, Points-based Prediction Markets Spread

In the Japanese market, MIRAIMA is not an isolated case.

Competitor Poyp launched a similar service in March this year, while mobile game company gumi introduced a points-based prediction game in June.

Poyp is positioned as a smartphone application using prediction market mechanisms and has begun offering advertising and market research services to businesses. Brands and media can create prediction “markets” within the app, attracting users to predict and analyze around products, content, or events. Its aim is not just user guessing, but also encompasses enterprise marketing and consumer insights.

gumi's “Yosoku Hiroba” is closer to providing entertainment through predictions, as its service is entirely free. Users participate in predictions on politics, economy, sports, entertainment, and other themes using exclusive prediction points (Yosopo), earning reward points (gold) that can be exchanged for electronic currency if their predictions are successful. Gumi has also explicitly stated that this service has been reviewed by lawyers and law firms familiar with the relevant fields to ensure healthy prediction entertainment services without touching on gambling laws.

In addition to the strictly regulated Japanese market, major tech company Meta is also researching similar routes. Meta is developing an internal prediction market application named Arena and is exploring potential collaboration with Polymarket and Kalshi.

Unlike trading platforms involving real money, Arena's current design employs a point system similar to games, targeting users aged 18 to 34, with Meta envisioning attracting at least 100 million monthly active users in the future. For Meta, the points model can reduce early compliance pressure, avoid issues related to gambling, derivatives, and state gambling regulations, and more easily integrate into existing traffic entry points like Facebook and Messenger.

In fact, this isn’t Meta's first foray into prediction products, having launched an experimental app called Forecast in 2020. Users could ask questions about future events in that app, use in-app points for predictions, and discuss the reasons behind their predictions. However, due to lackluster responses, that product was later shut down in 2022. The forthcoming Arena can be seen as Meta's renewed attempt at prediction product formats following the rise in popularity of prediction markets.

From Trading Markets to Points Games: The Path Differentiation Behind Regulatory Pressure

The two mainstream prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, represent a prediction market model that requires the use of real money for trading or betting. On the other hand, platforms like MIRAIMA and Poyp, which use points as “prediction costs,” structurally resemble points activities, advertising incentives, gamified tasks, and market research rather than financial contract trading.

The main factor causing this distinction arises from regulatory pressure. Japanese criminal law explicitly prohibits gambling, and Japan has consistently adopted a cautious attitude towards overseas online gambling and crypto trading services. Crypto exchange bitbank previously issued a notice on June 15, stating that if it confirms that users have transactions with betting-type prediction market services like Polymarket, it may take account suspension measures. Bitbank also reminded that Japanese residents using overseas prediction markets for monetary gain risks being involved in gambling behavior.

On points-based platforms, however, users do not invest capital of property value, nor is there direct cash payout, and their business models shift towards advertising, tasks, user growth, brand marketing, and data services. Moreover, Japan has a long-standing points economy, gift card exchanges, and digital points ecosystems like PayPay and Rakuten, with users already trained to the consumption habit of “saving points and exchanging for rewards”. MIRAIMA's founder, Keita Ando, has also stated in reports that Japan cannot engage in real-money gambling and thus the platform is designed around Japan's strong gaming and points culture.

However, points-based prediction markets do not equate to a disappearance of regulatory risks. If reward points can be exchanged for gift cards, electronic currency, or other economically valuable rights, regulatory authorities may still be concerned about whether it involves lotteries, promotional gifts, underage participation, or inducing addiction. Yogonet has reported that some legal experts believe these kinds of platforms might still face stricter scrutiny in the future, especially when rewards have monetary value, user scales expand rapidly, and age restrictions are not as strict as those of real-money platforms.

Regardless, MIRAIMA's rise showcases an alternative business path. For jurisdictions where it is difficult to directly implement prediction markets involving real money, or for companies looking to avoid compliance risks, platforms may first package predictive behavior using points, advertising, and reward systems, transforming prediction markets from financial trading products into content interaction products.

This path of “light compliance, heavy growth” will increasingly gain attention and imitators globally.

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