Author: Robert Hackett

Translated by:Deep Current TechFlow

Deep Current Digest: The data briefing from a16z Crypto shows that the weekly trading volume of prediction markets surpassed $14.4 billion for the first time last week, reaching a historic high for the third consecutive week; at the beginning of the year, this figure was only $5-6 billion. What’s more noteworthy is the non-sports categories—politics, economics, geopolitics—achieving $3.6 billion in a single week, which is larger than the total amount for the entire market (including sports) from the previous year. The World Cup has raised the heat, but growth has long exceeded just betting.

Last week, the weekly trading volume of prediction markets surged to $14.4 billion for the first time, while at the beginning of the year, this figure was between $5-6 billion. The previous historical peak (around $10 billion) was only set just a week ago.

Aggregating all platforms, the current trading volume is more than ten times that of a year ago.

Caption: Weekly trading volume trend of prediction markets, reaching $14.4 billion last week, with around $5-6 billion at the beginning of the year

The open interest (the total amount of positions that have not yet been settled) reached $1.6 billion last week, setting a new weekly record for the third consecutive week.

Unlike trading volume, open interest only grows when new positions are opened faster than old positions are settled. Therefore, this upward trend indicates that real money being committed to these markets is increasing.

Since last autumn, this line has been steadily rising. During this period, open interest has increased about 8 times, from less than $200 million to $1.6 billion.

Caption: Open interest has grown about 8 times since last autumn, rising from less than $200 million to $1.6 billion

The World Cup has drawn a large amount of attention and funds, leading other areas to rise along with it. Non-sports trading volume—covering categories such as politics, economics, geopolitics, and current events—reached a total of $3.6 billion last week on Kalshi and Polymarket combined. This figure is larger than the total amount for the entire prediction market (including sports) from last year in a week.

In July 2025, the non-sports weekly trading volume was only around $200 million. Now it has increased approximately 18 times, and the trend has clearly steepened this month.

Thanks: Data and charts from Ryan Holloway and Robert Hackett (special article editor and special projects leader at a16z crypto).