From my personal point of view, the probability of interest rate hikes in 2026 is very small, almost negligible. The main reason is that the rise in oil prices has already been curbed. If WTI prices drop to around $60 and Brent to around $65, then inflation in the U.S. and even globally is likely to retreat from its peak.

Of course, the transmission takes time; it will probably take another two to three months. By the fourth quarter, oil prices should remain stable at a lower level, provided that Trump doesn't create any trouble; the tariff issues haven't been resolved yet.

Overall, I personally believe that even if there are no rate cuts or only one opportunity for a rate cut in 2026, the likelihood of interest rate hikes in 2026 is low, especially now that Iran's oil is starting to be sold abroad.

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