Korean stocks soar while oil prices plummet: funds are rewriting risk appetite.

CN
3 hours ago

Within the same time window, multiple asset prices were repriced: in the context of reports that South Korea's policy focus is shifting towards the stock market, the second phase of the "Fundamental Law on Digital Assets" related to digital assets may be postponed this year, the KOSPI surged more than 2.7% in the afternoon of a trading day, with Samsung Electronics rising approximately 7.8% in a single day as the leading weight. Meanwhile, in after-hours trading of U.S. stocks, Qualcomm's share price initially soared over 4%, with a current increase of about 3%, as the market continued to speculate around its discussions with ByteDance for customized chips (reports indicate that specific cooperation terms have not been disclosed), intertwining technology and chip risk premiums; in contrast to the warming sentiment in the stock market and tech stocks, over the past 12 hours, SPCX fell about 5%, on-chain monitoring showed that large short positions were concentrated around $169, which has become the average cost range for short positions, while international crude oil prices continued to decline, reaching a recent low, and major whales were monitored using 3x leverage to short about $35.7 million in crude directional positions. Among these media and on-chain monitoring information with the "generation failure, please use with caution" risk warning, it can be observed that reports of South Korea's policy tilting towards the stock market, the strength of tech leaders, and the pressure on oil and SPCX are intertwined, showing that capital is adjusting risk preferences across assets and validating new pricing assumptions with real positions.

Korean Stocks Surge in the Afternoon: KOSPI and Samsung Lead

In the same time frame where crude oil and SPCX were under pressure, the Korean stock market exhibited a more typical signal of risk preference switching in the afternoon: the KOSPI index was rapidly lifted from a low, showing a V-shaped reversal, with afternoon gains exceeding 2.7%. During the rapid rise in the index, buy orders were highly concentrated on a few tech heavyweight blue chips, driving the index to complete a sharp switch from a pullback to a surge in a short period. The directional choice of capital was very clear.

Among them, Samsung Electronics became the core driver of this round of surge, with its stock price rising about 7.8% on that day, reportedly contributing significantly to the overall performance of the KOSPI that day. This "single leader lifts the index" structure reflects that capital currently prefers heavyweights that possess technological attributes and liquidity advantages under the current environment. According to media briefings carrying the "generation failure, please use with caution" risk warning, South Korea's second phase of the "Fundamental Law on Digital Assets" may face postponement this year, with the reason cited as "the government is shifting the policy focus to the stock market," which means that the policy tier is seen as providing implicit support for the stock market. In conjunction with the capital's concentrated pursuit of the KOSPI and Samsung Electronics, this forms an important backdrop for the current surge in the Korean stock market's afternoon trading.

Qualcomm Strengthens in After-Hours: Chip Sentiment Spills Over to Asian Stocks

In sync with the local policy expectations raising risk preferences, external tech sentiment provided additional “fuel” in the same time window. Qualcomm's U.S. stock initially surged over 4% in after-hours trading, followed by a narrowing increase to about 3%. Reports indicated that it was negotiating with ByteDance to provide customized chips; although specific cooperation terms were not disclosed, the market has interpreted it as a signal that demand for high-performance chips and customized orders might expand. After related briefings carrying the "generation failure, please use with caution" risk warning were widely circulated by traders, Qualcomm's after-hours performance itself was seen as a "vote" on this rumor, reinforcing investors' optimistic expectations regarding visibility in global chip industry orders.

This expectation quickly overflowed through emotional channels to the Asian market. On that day, tech and semiconductor weights in the Korean stock market saw widespread strength, with Samsung Electronics rising approximately 7.8%. The pull effect within the KOSPI was extremely pronounced, leading some capital to view it as a reflection of the "Qualcomm-ByteDance customized chip" story within the Asian industrial chain: if major U.S. chip designers are expected to secure more customized orders from Chinese internet giants, then Asian semiconductor players with capacity and technological advantages might potentially share the marginal gains from the expanding demand. The simultaneous warming of technology themes across markets made global capital more willing to increase weights in growth and tech assets during this round of volatility, even though the relevant cooperation still remained at the stage of "reportedly" and "there are reports that," the market had already given higher risk preference pricing in terms of valuation and positions.

SPCX Drops 5% in 12 Hours

In contrast to the synchronous strength of the Korean stock market and some tech stocks, the price of SPCX dropped about 5% over the past 12 hours. During the same time window when the KOSPI rose over 2.7%, Samsung Electronics gained about 7.8%, and Qualcomm saw a roughly 3% increase in after-hours trading, SPCX exhibited a clear divergence, indicating that not all high-risk assets were participating in this round of emotional recovery, and funds' preferences for different risk assets are becoming layered.

According to the on-chain monitoring data description, large short addresses concentrated their build-up around the SPCX price of approximately $169, with the average short position resting at this price level, but no specific holdings size or identities were disclosed. From the price distribution, $169 has been viewed by the market as a key defensive zone for short positions, increasing the resistance for short-term bulls pushing prices above this level. While the stock market and tech stocks received incremental buying, SPCX repeatedly faced pressure above this critical price level, resembling a reflection of the weak short-term sentiment for crypto-related risk assets, showing that some funds chose to reduce leverage and weight in this sector, constituting a noteworthy observation point for the subsequent cross-asset capital reallocation direction.

Crude Oil Falls Below Recent Lows: 3x Leverage Short Positions Continue

During the same time window where SPCX faced short-term pressure, international crude oil prices continued to follow the previous downward trend, once again hitting recent lows, with risk preferences in the commodities sector obviously cooling down. The continuous weakening of prices has already compressed the holding space that bulls can endure, and in the absence of clear fundamental positive support, funds are more inclined to hedge commodity exposure through reducing positions and shorting, echoing the earlier mentioned "reducing leverage and weight" in crypto-related assets.

Reports indicate that a major whale in the oil market shorted directionally using approximately 3x leverage, with a nominal size of about $35.7 million, further amplifying the bet on falling oil prices. The specifics of the closing price and risk control parameters for this position have not been disclosed, but increasing leveraged short positions at a time when prices have already reached recent lows indirectly indicates that large funds remain fairly confident in further declines in oil prices. In stark contrast, the sentiment of the Korean stock market and tech stocks strengthened during the same time window, with the KOSPI rising over 2.7% in the afternoon, and significant gains seen in tech and chip-related stocks, with the direction of risk capital shifting from commodities to a concentrated allocation towards the stock market becoming clearer, transitioning cross-asset styles from "betting on resources" to "betting on growth."

Stock Market Priority and Crypto Postponement: South Korea Regulatory Winds Have Changed

Apart from the aforementioned cross-asset price signals, reports indicated that South Korea's second phase of the "Fundamental Law on Digital Assets" may be postponed this year, interpreting that the policy is shifting focus towards the stock market; it should be emphasized that the related briefings themselves carry a "generation failure, please use with caution" warning, and this legislative process and policy motives should still be guided by officially publicly available information. Alongside this regulatory wind change report, the KOSPI rose more than 2.7% during a certain trading day's afternoon, Samsung Electronics rose about 7.8% that day, while in the same time window, SPCX fell approximately 5% over nearly 12 hours, and international crude oil prices continued to hit recent lows. The previously mentioned large leveraged short positions further extended their shorts in oil, and the contours of capital withdrawing from commodities and some on-chain risk assets, refocusing allocation to the Korean stock market and tech stocks have become quite clear. For investors in crypto assets, on one hand, if the pace of advancing specialized legislation for digital assets in the second phase slows down, the short-term compliance expectations and timing for incremental institutional funds could be discounted by the market; on the other hand, when cross-asset funds are treating "growth stocks + tech stocks" as the primary battleground, the pricing power and marginal liquidity of crypto-related assets within the global risk spectrum will increasingly depend on their own fundamentals and endogenous narratives, rather than solely relying on external liquidity flooding to elevate valuations.

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