Tesla recently submitted a trademark application for "Amazing Abundance," packaging AI software, humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and automation technology into a new narrative pointing to "abundance": no longer just a car manufacturer, but a company that aims to tell a future story filled with material wealth through algorithms and machines. This naming reinforces Wall Street's optimistic sentiment towards the AI sector—Wells Fargo still gives a long-term target for the S&P 500 pointing to 8600–8800 points by the end of 2027, despite the tense backdrop in the Strait of Hormuz, actively betting on the long-term profit potential of such tech and AI giants. However, behind the "abundance" story, internal conflict in the U.S. has started to tear at the roadmap for distributing AI dividends: Vice President Vance openly opposes letting AI giants evolve into unrestrained monopolists, proposing that through national stockholdings and labor participation mechanisms, ordinary workers share in AI equity gains. Meanwhile, Musk responded on X about how AI dividends should be returned directly to the public, though specifics have not been publicly detailed. This political divergence over "who will take the AI cash flow" runs parallel to the optimistic expectations of the capital markets. At the same time, The Wall Street Journal's investigation of Polymarket revealed another layer of tension: the platform was accused of hiring paid creators to produce false profit videos, with one college student claiming to have made approximately $100,000 by betting on "Trump publicly mentioning McDonald's," which raised suspicions of a well-orchestrated marketing plot. The market that was initially packaged as a "rational pricing future" has turned into a casino of emotional amplification amid information distortion. Adding in the hard geopolitics on the Strait of Hormuz: On June 18, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, and after technical talks on June 21, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced it would "close" the strait on the grounds that the U.S. had not effectively constrained Israel. Subsequently, public data showed no visible records of vessels passing through in the following 24 hours. Analysts suggested some vessels may have turned off their AIS to attempt "dark passage." While oil routes and trade channels had their uncertainty switched on, the market placed bets on the long-term abundance brought by AI while remaining highly tense regarding supply shocks and systemic risks. In this narrative pull, the emotional curve of the macro and crypto markets has been amplified into a long-term game of "abundance" versus "risk."

Where is Amazing Abundance pointing?

On the same timeline where the "pause button" was pressed on the Strait of Hormuz, Tesla quietly submitted a trademark named "Amazing Abundance." Sources indicate that this trademark covers AI software, humanoid robots, autonomous driving systems, and various automation technologies, effectively bundling Tesla's current and planned "machine brain + machine body" landscape in one go: from the autonomous driving systems in cars to automated production lines in factories, to the previously publicly displayed humanoid robot project, all can be encompassed under this new umbrella. It doesn’t seem like a name for a specific product, but rather a total prefix reserved for Tesla's future set of AI and automation businesses. Once approved, subsequent software subscriptions, robot hardware, or value-added services based on autonomous driving could all fall under the main narrative of "abundance."

For the capital market, the four words "Amazing Abundance" itself serve as a roadshow script. Tesla has continually invested heavily in autonomous driving and manufacturing automation over the past few years and now attempts to repackage these investments as core assets of the AI era with a brand directly pointing to "abundance," resonating with Wall Street's optimistic mid- to long-term outlook on AI and tech stocks—Wells Fargo's prediction of the S&P 500 potentially rising to approximately 8600–8800 points by the end of 2027 is a reflection of this optimism. AI and robotics stocks have been becoming increasingly popular in global capital markets, and segments related to the AI narrative in the crypto market are also frequently ignited by sentiment. In this context, Tesla's submission of this trademark is interpreted as sending a signal to investors: the company intends not only to construct a valuation story as an electric vehicle enterprise but also to compete for a position as an "AI abundance provider." Whether this strategic move allows it to occupy a higher premium in the imagination space of AI in the U.S. stock and crypto markets will be a variable repeatedly tested in the coming quarters.

How AI dividends are distributed in Washington

While Tesla tells a story of an "abundant future" brought by AI and robots with "Amazing Abundance," Washington is discussing another layer of the issue: who ultimately receives this abundance. Vance's proposal is to no longer let large AI enterprises evolve into unrestrained monopolists, but rather to have the state hold stocks, coupled with labor participation mechanisms, allowing workers to directly engage in the inner workings of AI's capital structure through equity or profit-sharing forms; in contrast, Musk's response on the X platform represents a different vision—focusing on "how to get money into people's hands," rather than "letting the state sit on the board." The former indicates that the state and labor enter the list of shareholders, while the latter resembles pathways of redistributing profits through taxes and other routes back to the public. These two paths have torn apart the AI policy landscape within the U.S. and signal whether large AI companies will reshape ownership structures through the state-capital-labor tripartite game in the future or continue to focus solely on market valuation while merely addressing distribution.

For investors, this ideological struggle is not merely abstract political philosophy, but directly determines which link in the profit chain they stand on. If Vance’s model of state stockholding becomes mainstream, part of the equity and dividends of AI giants will be locked in public and labor accounts, and the publicly traded chips and corporate decision-making space may be compressed, making ordinary retail investors' capture of AI dividends more reliant on long-term holding and following the rhythms of state and institutions; whereas if Musk’s narrative of "direct payments" gains the upper hand, Wall Street can continue to package AI companies as high-growth assets, enlarging the future cash flow narrative, albeit a portion of profits is withdrawn at the end to return to residents, with regulatory focus shifting more toward how to prevent corporations from "making empty promises." The crypto market is wedged between these two paths: one is continuously trying to amplify the imagination of "abundance" with tokens and protocols surrounding the AI narrative, while the other is represented by platforms like Polymarket, which have been pointed out by the media for hiring paid creators to produce false profit videos, intensifying regulatory scrutiny over the authenticity of information in crypto and prediction markets. In such an environment, regardless of which AI dividend distribution route Washington ultimately chooses, what remains for ordinary investors and crypto participants is no longer a simple matter of "betting on the right track to enjoy returns," but rather a need to find their realistic position in the profit distribution chain, caught in the interplay of state stockholding, market valuation, and regulatory red lines.

Polymarket's wealth myth collapses

In The Wall Street Journal's investigation, the college student lying on a dorm bed, sharing how he "earned ten thousand dollars in one shot," became the central figure and turning point in Polymarket's wealth myth. He claimed he profited approximately $100,000 on the platform by betting on "Trump mentioning McDonald's," and the bet paid off, with his account's earnings reflected overnight—dramatic plot points within the story, familiar political figures, and fast-food brands hit precisely on the dissemination codes of the short video era. However, the report also accused that this was a marketing video produced by paid creators of Polymarket, alleging that this profit was fictional and intended to showcase "potential earnings" to prospective users. When viewers believed they were catching a glimpse of ordinary people grabbing a moment of the era's dividends, the reality behind the lens was merely a carefully orchestrated customer acquisition advertisement.

Polymarket itself is a prediction market built on blockchain, allowing bets on events such as election outcomes and macroeconomic indicators, originally meant to sell its platform as a venue for "collective wisdom" and probability pricing. Still, it has shifted toward another route within the regulatory gray area: unable to promote through mainstream channels, it turns to social platforms, using stories of extreme earnings to attract traffic and new users. In this narrative, the platform and paid creators hold the power to define the story, showcasing the glimpses of a small number of "winners," while intentionally or unintentionally downplaying the odds structure, information asymmetry, and risks borne by the vast majority of participants. Regulatory agencies, therefore, maintain heightened scrutiny over its compliance, and users are beginning to question whether they are betting on the macro and political events themselves or a whole set of traffic businesses wrapped in wealth myths. When compliance pressure and trust crises press down on these platforms, the so-called story of "making money by predicting the world" is no longer pure; the prediction market is pushed back to a murky edge, distancing itself from becoming a reliable macro betting tool for ordinary people.

Wall Street bullish, with clouds over the Strait of Hormuz

While retail investors continue to bet on fragmented events on prediction platforms, Wall Street is betting on the future with a much grander narrative. Wells Fargo's figures are quite straightforward: by the end of 2027, the S&P 500 is expected to rise to approximately 8600–8800 points, suggesting that in their model, the U.S. stock market, especially sectors related to AI, will continue to gain years of valuation uplift. The naming of "Amazing Abundance" by Tesla provides a tangible symbol for this sentiment—AI, humanoid robots, and autonomous driving are packaged as a predictable "abundant" future, forming a closed loop reinforcing the target index price and corporate story, as if the macro curve has been inscribed in an upward channel.

However, another timeline unfolds over the Strait of Hormuz. On June 18, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum, and on June 21 entered technical discussions. Shortly after, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the U.S. had not effectively restrained Israel. Within 24 hours following the announcement, there were no records visible in public monitoring data of any vessels passing through. Some analysts warned that it's possible some vessels turned off their AIS automatic identification system to "dark passage" but admitted there are no verifiable successful samples. The result is a juxtaposition: on one side, the long-term target price for the S&P in 2027, and on the other side, the immediate uncertainty at the current energy chokepoint: the oil and gas chain and shipping companies face jagged trajectories of prices and costs fluctuating with the situation, while crypto assets, highly correlated with macro risks, may oscillate between "geopolitical shock hedging narratives" and "global risk asset resonance pullbacks". In such an environment, market bets on the long-term abundance of AI have not mitigated the short-term shocks brought by risks in the Strait of Hormuz; instead, the entire asset portfolio has been compelled to continuously pull between the "distant 8600 points" and the impending clouds over the strait.

From Amazing Abundance to real fluctuations

From Tesla's submission of the "Amazing Abundance" trademark, abundance has been packaged as a quantifiable, nameable, and registrable asset story: AI software, humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and automation technology have been integrated into an imagined pathway toward “everyone benefiting.” However, in reality, there are still unresolved divergences within the U.S. on the routes for AI equity and dividend distribution. Vance, representing the Trump administration, proposed state stockholding and labor participation mechanisms, while Musk responded on X on how to distribute profits to the public; these unimplemented proposals imply that the so-called "era of abundance" remains unsettled at the institutional level. Meanwhile, Wall Street, still facing the tension in the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of shipping disruptions that haven’t completely dissipated, gives an optimistic forecast for the S&P 500 possibly rising to 8600–8800 points by the end of 2027, while also contending with the media storm regarding Polymarket being accused of hiring paid creators to produce false profit videos and the college student's $100,000 "bet on McDonald's" story. These events remind investors that while the AI narrative can elevate tech stocks and crypto asset valuations, it cannot eliminate the vulnerabilities at the institutional and geopolitical levels. The real challenge will be to maintain awareness and caution amid a single optimistic story, ensuring that policy pathways, compliance risks, and regional situations are all placed on the same decision-making table, keeping a sense of sensitivity toward information sources and timelines, and clearly differentiating between the imagination of "abundance" and the evolving realities of fluctuations.

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