Author: Fidelity Digital Assets

Compiler: Jiahua, ChainCatcher

Mid-year is a good review point where investors can assess how market dynamics have changed and whether their early judgments still hold.

In the "2026 Outlook", the Fidelity Digital Assets research team believes that this year's key point is not an immediate rise in prices, but a more subtle dynamic, which is the structural "remodeling" of the entire digital asset ecosystem. Despite experiencing flat and fluctuating price performance at times this year, a closer examination reveals that several underlying trends are continuously advancing.

This article reviews the progress of several key themes in the "2026 Outlook" to date, pointing out which of our judgments have been validated, which have diverged, and what these changes may mean for the future.

1: Digital Assets Accelerate Integration with Capital Markets

We anticipated that the integration of digital assets with traditional capital markets would continue to advance by 2026. So far, this trend is indeed progressing, with advancements in certain areas even exceeding expectations.

Despite fluctuations in the market, the demand for exposure to digital assets through mainstream financial channels remains strong, and traditional platforms are continuing to expand their product lines.

Notably, the open interest for spot Bitcoin ETP options (which are expected to launch in November 2024) can now compete with options settled directly in Bitcoin, reflecting a continuous increase in adoption rates among institutions and mainstream investors.

The momentum in the tokenization space is also strengthening, with activity levels seemingly exceeding expectations. Traditional financial institutions are increasingly rolling out blockchain-based investment products, while major exchanges are collaborating with or acquiring stakes in digital asset platforms to expand distribution channels and connect with on-chain infrastructure.

Meanwhile, regulatory clarity is also improving. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jointly published guidance on establishing classifications for digital assets. Coupled with legislative advancements such as the CLARITY Act, this means that market participants will welcome a more defined framework.

Overall, these developments indicate that digital assets are continuing to integrate into the broader financial system, propelled by market demand and infrastructure expansion.

2: The Rights of Token Holders Gradually Gain Attention, but Remain Unclear

We anticipated that by 2026, the interests of token holders would become more closely tied, with more on-chain businesses prioritizing buybacks and clearer ownership mechanisms.

So far, this direction appears unchanged, as ongoing experimentation across the ecosystem continues: from reserve-based buyback dynamics (such as Hyperliquid/USDC alliance) to governance and structural updates like the Aave DAO/Labs restructuring.

However, despite the expanding range of adoption for these mechanisms, a significant "token holder rights premium" has not yet been fully reflected in market pricing. This trend is advancing but is still in its early stages, as investors continue to assess which models can truly lead to sustained value accumulation.

3: Potential Shifts in Artificial Intelligence and Mining

We previously suggested that the increasing competition from AI compute demand might lead to a stabilization in Bitcoin's hash rate growth, as miners redirect energy and infrastructure to potentially more profitable avenues. This dynamic seems to be emerging this year: the 30-day average hash rate and mining difficulty have decreased by approximately 8.8% and 7.8%, respectively.

Although part of this can be attributed to seasonal factors, especially winter-related power restrictions, the recent recovery (with the hash rate rebounding about 1.3% from a low point and difficulty rebounding around 8.8%) suggests that weather alone cannot fully explain this shift.

From a longer trajectory perspective, the growth rate of hash rate has slowed compared to previous years, which may be an early signal of structural change. The business of AI data centers is becoming increasingly profitable, especially for large operators who can secure access to power infrastructure, which seems to be an increasingly plausible driving force behind this.

Despite still being in its early stages, the observed slowdown in growth aligns with initial judgments, potentially reflecting that miners are gradually shifting to other sources of income.

4: Bitcoin at a New Turning Point

We previously anticipated that increasing the amount of data that can be written with the OP_RETURN opcode would not lead to a significant bloating of the blockchain (OP_RETURN is used for on-chain data writing, and since fees must be paid, relaxing its data cap has not led to abuse or network bloat). So far, the data seems to support this judgment.

The usage of larger OP_RETURN sizes (≥84 bytes) has remained largely unchanged, and the overall growth of the blockchain still remains within the predicted range (approximately 1.35–2.5MB). Other block utilization metrics show that capacity remains below 50%, indicating that the increase in data flexibility has not placed substantial pressure on the network.

Meanwhile, attention has turned to more macro network dynamics. Bitcoin Knots nodes have seen noticeable volatility, rising rapidly and then falling back just as quickly, prompting speculation about potential Sybil-like activities.

According to current data, Bitcoin Core nodes still account for about 77% of the network, while Knots nodes represent about 17%. While still a minority, this presents a risk of unexpected splits—although the probability is low, it is not zero: under certain conditions, Knots nodes may diverge into a stalled or less secure chain, which, based on current calculations, could happen in about 80 days.

However, the dominant share of Core remains anchored in network consensus. At the same time, momentum around long-term security upgrades is also increasing. BIP-360 has been simplified to introduce quantum-resistant output types (Pay-to-Merkle-Root, abbreviated as P2MR); ongoing research on OP_CHECKSHRINCS reflects explorations into hash-based post-quantum signature schemes.

While the specific timing of quantum threats remains uncertain, these advancements indicate that the industry is increasingly placing importance on preparing for the future security of the network.

5: Bears Temporarily Control the Situation

In January of this year, we sketched two scenarios where bulls and bears would be evenly matched entering 2026, anticipating that macro conditions would lead to a nonlinear trend, despite improving structural fundamentals.

So far this year, the bearish scenario has largely dominated: Bitcoin has fallen by 13%, driven by deleveraging triggered by liquidations, persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty shifting the market toward expectations of further interest rate hikes. However, recent market performance reveals a more subtle dynamic.

Following the initial wave of selling triggered by recent geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery and has outperformed traditional assets during the same period. This may reflect a market demand for high liquidity, neutral assets during times of pressure.

Meanwhile, structural positives remain in place, including the ongoing formation of institutional capital, gradual improvements in regulatory clarity, and an expansion of global liquidity.

Although the short-term environment remains constrained, our broader judgment still seems valid, albeit with uneven progress.

6: Gold Strongly Maintains, What Will Happen Next?

We previously pointed out that it is not surprising for gold to have a strong year again, supported by central bank demand for gold and a global trend of gradually breaking away from the dollar system.

This year, gold rebounded nearly 30% amid geopolitical tensions, then fell back to a more moderate increase of about 3–4%. Despite the pullback, gold may still outperform the market by the end of the year.

Evidence supporting the move away from the dollar system is also increasing, including emerging alternative settlement methods, such as Iran accepting Bitcoin for toll payments and transactions related to activities in the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, central bank demand for gold remains strong. Recent data shows that accumulation is ongoing, and it is noteworthy that gold has surpassed the dollar and U.S. Treasuries to become a major component of global reserves.

Gold's performance and the sustained demand from central banks largely align with our initial judgment; however, the exceptional performance of Bitcoin that we anticipated has yet to materialize.

Conclusion: Building Power Beneath the Surface

As we reach mid-year, the landscape of digital assets in 2026 exhibits a balance between short-term pressures and long-term progress. Several themes outlined in the “Outlook” are developing as expected, particularly in terms of institutional participation, regulation, and infrastructure; however, others remain in early stages or have not fully materialized.

For investors, this indicates the need to look beyond short-term price fluctuations to observe how structural changes are taking shape. Many foundational supports for the next phase of growth seem to be thickening, even if they have not fully revealed themselves yet.

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