Trading Moment: June Welcomes a Dense Risk Window, Three Structural Factors Amplify Bitcoin's Weakness, CME Weekend Gap Becomes History

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macroeconomic Market

Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose and continued to set historical highs, with the S&P 500 index up 5.15% in May and the Nasdaq composite index rising 8.36%. On Monday, U.S. stock index futures continued to rise.

However, Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America Securities, warned that the current market is showing signs of a bubble burst. Although the S&P 500 index reached a new high, most component stocks are at historical lows, with a price-to-earnings ratio as high as 29 times, and valuation heavily reliant on optimistic profit expectations. The Bank of America bull-bear indicator has risen to 8.5, nearing historical highs, and the global market breadth measure has also entered the "overbought" zone. June will see a cluster of significant events such as CPI announcements, the G7 summit, and Federal Reserve meetings, making it easy to burst the super bubble.

The Japanese and South Korean stock markets reached new highs again, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index surpassing 67,000 points for the first time and South Korea's KOSPI index surging over 4% to break through 8,800 points. Goldman Sachs partner Mark Wilson stated in the latest weekly report that the explosion of demand for AI infrastructure has attracted a large amount of leveraged capital to the storage chip sector, driving up the stock prices of related companies like SK Hynix significantly. Wilson revealed that his morning routine has shifted from focusing on the situation in the Middle East to first checking the stock price of SK Hynix. He also pointed out that market sentiment has entered a state of "extreme greed with little fear."

Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics rose over 10%, with a year-to-date increase of 190%, and its stock price reached a new high, surpassing 350,000. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang plans to visit South Korea this week to meet with LG Group chairman. The market expects to see more collaboration opportunities in the robotics and AI fields, with LG Electronics' stock price nearing a 30% limit up. Additionally, SoftBank plans to invest 14 trillion yen in France to build the largest data center in Europe, with its stock price soaring by 14%, surpassing Toyota in market value.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin closed May at $73,674, dropping 3.5% for the month. The current weakness of Bitcoin is mainly influenced by three structural factors: firstly, the continuous setting of historical highs in U.S., Japanese, and Korean stock markets exacerbates the divergence with cryptocurrency market valuations; secondly, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have weakened, with the market anticipating that the June FOMC meeting will maintain the benchmark interest rate (probability of 99.4%); thirdly, institutional demand has weakened, with approximately $2.43 billion in net outflow from spot ETFs in May.

According to Coinglass data, since 2013, the average return of Bitcoin in June has been -0.14%, with a median return of 2.2%, making June one of the historically worst months for Bitcoin. As June 2026 begins, market expectations for Bitcoin's performance this month are generally cautious.

In addition, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially opened 7×24 hour trading of Bitcoin futures on May 29, effectively eliminating the classic "weekend gap" technical indicator from history. Although large short positions continue to decline, bulls have not yet formed a clear trend. The market is generally focused on the U.S. May CPI data set to be released on June 10 and the key macro events such as the FOMC meeting on June 16-17, which may act as significant catalysts to break the current stalemate of Bitcoin around $73,000.

Bearish Views

The core logic of the bearish camp lies in the inevitability of cyclical pullbacks and the risk of breaking crucial support levels. They believe that if the key opening price cannot be recaptured or if the current trend line is broken, the market will follow historical patterns and face deep liquidations in the summer.

KillaXBT: Bitcoin may experience a brief rebound in early June, but overall June may end with a decline. Additionally, be wary of the "June 14 curse," as historical data shows that there is often a drop of 5-8% within a week after this date. Plans to gradually buy at $65,000, $60,000, and $55,000.
cyclop: According to the 4-year cycle pattern, Bitcoin usually faces about a 30% sell-off in summer and is expected to drop near $50,000 soon.
Kalshi trader: Predicting that the short-term low for Bitcoin will touch $55,000.
wulf: The 4-hour chart is forming a bearish flag. If it breaks below the current trend line support, it will re-test the low of $72,000; maintaining a bearish bias until it reaches the lower range around $60,000.
Kaz: The monthly closing with a bearish candle aligns with expectations. If the price is obstructed at $76.3k, it will form a lower top and continue downward.

Bullish Views

The bullish camp focuses on on-chain cost support, the repair of technical patterns, and the attractiveness of liquidity gaps. They firmly believe that the current fluctuations are merely a buildup of momentum, and after breaking key resistance, the price will head straight for historical highs or even the $100,000 mark.

Marcus Corvinus (Glassnode): $71,400 (cost line for 3-6 month holders) is the strongest support recently. If it stabilizes and rebounds, the next target will be $78,200, with hopes of reaching $100,000 by the end of the year.
CrypNuevo: Currently looking for long opportunities with a long lower shadow in the $72.5k-$73k range, expecting a "W" double bottom reversal.
CryptoFrog: The price is consolidating between the $72.5k support and $75k resistance. If it strongly breaks through $75.5k, a short-term rebound will occur in the $77k-$78k region.

Rekt Capital: If the weekly closing can stay above $73,000, it will confirm the double bottom breakout pattern and continue the upward trend.

Astronomer: Higher lows are forming; I personally look towards new highs and expect the market to stabilize above $74.2k.
CryptoCache: The weekend lows have been cleared, the short-sellers' Delta has halved, spot trading volume remains stable, and the $73.8k FVG is the next target. The upward trend remains favorable.
Lennaert Snyder: The daily chart shows alleviation signs. $78,000 is key to reversing the downward structure on the daily chart, and breaking this position will ignite continued bullish momentum.
CGT Trader: The order book heatmap shows a massive buy wall around $72,400. Such liquidity will provide strong support for the price.
Daan Crypto Trades: The price is in the bull market support zone, and high time frame moving averages are approaching. It is expected to trade long-term in the $60,000-$80,000 range.
David: Holding the key monthly support at $72,000 will trigger a rebound, and falling oil prices macroeconomically favor cryptocurrencies.

Key Data (As of June 1, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin spot ETF: Last week net outflow of $1.42 billion, the third-highest in history
Ethereum spot ETF: Last week net outflow of $241 million, marking three consecutive weeks of net outflows
HYPE spot ETF: Last week net inflow of $25.57 million
XRP spot ETF: Last week net inflow of $15.2 million
SOL spot ETF: Last week net inflow of $2.36 million
Fear and Greed Index: 29 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: SLX, XLM, XRP, STRAX, BTC
Sector performance: The crypto market saw mixed performances, DeFi sector rose over 2%, while CeFi sector dropped nearly 3%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 88,663 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $218 million, including $30.34 million in BTC, $34.36 million in ETH, and $19.07 million in HYPE.