Market Hotspot Dynamics:

1. A super IPO wave is flooding into the US stock market: SpaceX S-1 has been disclosed, expected to go public as early as June (valuation $1.5-2.0T). Deutsche Bank estimates that the largest IPO will only impact the market by about 1%. Historically, IPO waves have looked more like lagging factors in bull markets; IPOs do not lead to significant market declines, but rather lay the groundwork for future bull markets. The Blue Origin rocket explosion triggered a 43% flash crash in Hyperliquid SpaceX contracts within 7 minutes, resulting in over 400 retail investors being liquidated. Bitget focuses on Pre-IPO spot assets, creating market participation for spot/contract arbitrage, which provides deeper market depth and effectively controls needle risk.

2. Stablecoin differentiation intensifies: USDGO has grown 547% since March, driven by compliance endorsements attracting capital; USDe's market cap has shrunk by 25.5%, while the demand for algorithmic stablecoins has marginally weakened. USDGO offers a high base yield on Bitget, while also serving as an IPO Prime asset for new stock offerings, with strong market demand, holding strong at $1.

3. In May, BTC fell by 3.4%, with 18 out of 22 quantitative strategies outperforming holding assets, with an average alpha of +1.93%. The OBV price-volume divergence strategy topped at +7.41%.

Assets to watch: BTC, XLM, PSG (Champions League catalyst), HYPE (reaching ATH), AVGO (6/3 earnings report), NG (Natural Gas).

1. The Impact of Giant IPOs on the Market

Three major super IPOs, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, are crowding into the market. SpaceX S-1 has been disclosed, with plans to list in the second week of June, valued at $1.5-2.0T, raising $75 billion, the largest in history. The impact of the issuance wave on the market itself is mild (about 1%), and historically, the median return of the S&P 500 three months after an issuance wave is about 8%, exceeding 20% over 12 months (as shown in the chart, the yellow area represents historical IPO issuance periods, during which the S&P 500 maintained an upward trend for most IPO waves).

The demand side remains solid: household cash balances are above the trend at $3.3 trillion, Q1 earnings growth is the strongest in 20 years, and buybacks remain high. However, the positioning structure has potential risks—overall stock positions are at the 53rd percentile, while large-cap tech stocks are at 93rd percentile. In terms of fund flows, tech funds saw inflows of $9 billion, the largest in seven months, while emerging markets in Europe and Japan have seen continuous outflows for six weeks. The impact of IPOs will not be evenly distributed, but will resonate in the tech sector where positions are most crowded.

2. Hyperliquid vs Bitget Pre-IPO Contract Liquidity

On May 29, the Blue Origin New Glenn rocket's static fire test exploded, resulting in the space sector losing about $8 billion in market value, with panic swiftly spreading to SpaceX Pre-IPO assets. Hyperliquid SPACEX contracts plummeted from $2,286 to $1,299 (-43%) within 7 minutes, causing positions in over 400 wallets to be forcibly liquidated (liquidation amount $1.51 million).

Bitget SPCXUSDT uses a differentiated structure: featuring preSPCX spot tokens with spot as an anchor, providing better liquidity in the contract market, allowing market makers to arbitrage hedge using spot inventory, effectively suppressing needle situations in extreme market conditions. This "spot + contract" dual-layer structure demonstrates structural advantages in liquidity depth and price stability.

3. Stablecoin Growth Study

Since March 1, the growth trajectories of four stablecoins have been extremely differentiated. USDGO has grown by 547% ($50M to $323M), issued by Anchorage Digital Bank and distributed by OSL, which holds a Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission license, creating strong capital siphoning through compliance endorsements. USDT and USDC have shown steady growth (+2.7%/+0.9%), combining to dominate the market. USDe's market cap shrank by 25.5%, and in a downturn environment for BTC/ETH, the funding rate turning negative compressed delta-neutral strategy returns. In terms of price stability, USDT and USDC deviate no more than 0.15%, while USDe remains in the $0.999-$1.001 range, with USDGO's price recently maintaining a peg to $1, indicating higher market demand.

Bitget users holding USDGO in their accounts can automatically earn a daily yield of up to 4.3% APR without the need for staking or locking; additionally, holding the asset for more than 14 days through flash conversion qualifies for bidirectional slippage subsidies, achieving a 1:1 zero-loss exchange with USDT. USDGO can also serve as an IPO Prime asset for new stock offerings, balancing compliance and profitability.

4. Monthly Report on Quantitative Strategies

In May, BTC fell from $76,490 to $73,876 (-3.4%), with 18 of 22 strategies outperforming holding assets, with an average alpha of +1.93%. First-tier strategies (alpha>4%): OBV price-volume divergence (+7.41%), traditional MACD (+7.04%), Bollinger Bands (+7.00%), Turtle breakout (+4.98%), ATR breakout (+4.96%), VWAP mean reversion (+4.44%), order flow (+4.07%). Negative alpha strategies: BarUpDn (-6.35%), Outside Bar (-4.49%), where excessive directional bias led to frequent false signals in the absence of trend conditions.

OBV (On-Balance Volume) is a cumulative trading volume indicator; if the closing price rises, it adds the day's trading volume, and if it falls, it subtracts; the core idea is "volume precedes price." Within a 30-bike 5-minute candlestick review window:

1. When the price hits a new low but OBV does not synchronize to a new low, it is determined to be a bullish divergence, and a full position is bought;

2. When the price hits a new high but OBV does not synchronize to a new high, it is determined to be a bearish divergence, and a full position is sold.

Optimal risk-reward: VWAP Reversion (Sharpe 1.76), ATR Breakout (alpha +4.96%, drawdown only -2.64%). It is recommended to prioritize mean reversion and classic technical strategies.

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https://www.bitget.cloud/zh-CN/news/detail/12560605437591

Disclaimer: This report is for research reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The prices of crypto assets are highly volatile, and investors should assess risks independently.