Bitcoin and other risk assets have become increasingly sensitive to statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, with markets often swinging upward or downward within minutes of his social media posts or policy announcements to the news media.

This has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers, academics and market experts, as questions mount over whether those price movements have created lucrative opportunities for market manipulation or insider trading.

A recent University of Oxford Faculty of Law study found sharp swings in global markets following rapid changes in U.S. tariff policy, including a sequence in which prices across crypto and stock markets fell after new tariffs were announced, then rebounded after Trump partially rolled them back days later.

The scale and timing of those moves, the author noted, created “fantastic trading opportunities” for anyone with advanced knowledge of the decisions. Also, those back-and-forth decisions by Trump have been widely criticized and called the Trump Again Chickens Out (TACO) dynamic.

‘A great time to buy’

The issue gained further attention after Trump posted “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!! on Truth Social in April 2025 shortly before announcing a tariff adjustment that sent markets higher, prompting calls from lawmakers, including Senator Adam Schiff, for an investigation into potential insider trading or market manipulation.

Analysts, experts and media reports have highlighted patterns of large, well-timed trades across commodities and prediction markets, in some cases placed minutes before major policy or military announcements.

“Many experts say the Trump administration has engaged in market manipulation,” according to a March episode of CBC’s Front Burner, which pointed to unusually massively profitable trades in oil futures ahead of announcements related to the war with Iran.

Democratic Congressman Stephen Lynch raised similar concerns. He said trading activity tied to major Trump announcements “raised serious concerns about insider trading and market manipulation by government officials in possession of sensitive national security information.”

There is no evidence that Trump or his administration have violated securities laws or purposely manipulated the markets for self gain, but the increasing number of unusually well-timed market moves, combined with the administration’s direct influence over policy, geopolitics and regulation, has fueled a broader debate over whether the line between political decision-making and market impact is becoming increasingly blurred.

Here are five top moments when bitcoin's price swung either up or down due to a statement or social media post by Trump, from the "Genesis" skepticism of 2019 to the naval blockades of 2026.

The top five BTC price swings

1. July 11, 2019 — The "Not a Fan" Genesis Post. In his first direct broadside against the asset class, Trump posted on Twitter: “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money... and based on thin air.” Bitcoin dropped 7.1% within 45 minutes of the thread.

2. March 3, 2025 — The Strategic Reserve Pivot. Following a year of pro-crypto campaigning, Trump confirmed via Truth Social that his "Strategic National Crypto Reserve" would include a multi-asset basket of cryptocurrencies, most notably bitcoin. Bitcoin surged 8.2% in under 24 hours, jumping from $84,000 to over $91,000.

3. October 10, 2025 — The 100% tariffs on China. In yet another Truth Social post, Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports to counter Beijing's rare-earth export controls. Bitcoin plummeted 12.4% in roughly two hours, crashing from its $124,714 all-time high toward $102,000. And in 24 hours, a $19.38 billion liquidation event had taken place, marking the largest single-day wipeout in the asset's history.

4. March 3, 2026 — The Anti-Bank "Genius Act" Post. Trump took to Truth Social once again to criticize Wall Street banks for "undermining" the Genius Act and delaying the passage of the Clarity Act over stablecoin yield provisions. Bitcoin rose 5.2% in 10 minutes to $71,000. This moment highlighted the administration's willingness to go to war with the legacy financial system to protect the crypto sector.

5. April 14, 2026 — The Peace Talks. Following the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said that Iran had “reached out” for potential peace talks and that a deal was "very possible." Bitcoin rose 6.2% within 30 minutes from $70,000 to nearly $75,000.

It might happen again

Bitcoin shot to a more than two-month high above $78,000 on Friday after Trump essentially announced the end of the war and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet, by the end of the day, there were already questions about exactly what the U.S. and Iran had agreed to.

By Saturday morning, Iran's military said the Strait was again closed, and there were reports of some ships making U-turns and others being fired upon. Crypto prices were quickly giving back Friday's gains, with bitcoin sliding back below $76,000.