After the article on Anthropic was published before the holiday, some readers left comments asking questions. Today, I will elaborate in this article on the valuation of Anthropic.

The idea and logic of evaluating any company using the free cash flow method are the same, which is to discount all the cash flows generated by the enterprise throughout its lifecycle to the present, resulting in the company's valuation.

This is the ideal method.

However, in practice, due to various limitations and not wanting to get bogged down in too many trivial details that obscure more fundamental elements, I will simplify many conditions.

For example, in many cases, I simplify free cash flow to net profit---this is a method I have repeatedly used in previous articles and used again in the previous article.

Another example is simplifying the perpetual lifecycle to just consider a limited number of years after estimated profits---this is also a method I used in the previous article, only calculating the 20 years after it becomes profitable.

Additionally, I simply do not factor in discounting---this is a method I used in the previous article.

Why ignore discounting?

My thought is very simple:

As long as Anthropic's annual net profit/free cash flow growth rate after becoming profitable is higher than the risk-free interest rate, then its net profit/free cash flow discounted to (estimated profit in) 2028 will only be higher than or at least equal to 50 billion dollars per year---on this point, I believe as long as Anthropic develops as I expect, the probability of achieving this is quite large.

Therefore, I completely ignore discounting.

The method above simplified many factors, which is why I said in the previous article that my method is a “fairly superficial and rough estimate.”

Even though a lot of simplifications were made, I believe that such simplifications allow me to focus more on Anthropic's business model and competitive moat---whether it can firmly maintain its advantages towards corporate clients, consistently provide value to corporate users, and strictly adhere to its principles regarding AI.

If it can, then even the simplified data above appears to be good, and I actually believe it will only get better; but if it cannot, then its future deserves attention and caution.

After the above simplifications, I estimate its intrinsic value to be about one trillion dollars.

I refer to it as fair value, what does that mean?

It means that if it reaches this market value upon going public, then it indicates that its market value is relatively reasonable, neither low nor high, or in other words, not significantly bubble-laden, with controllable risks.

Currently, in some private markets and niche markets, Anthropic's secondary market valuation has reached 600 billion dollars. In my view, this price is not considered high.

However, whether its market value after going public will decline due to short-term market sentiment or experience the much-discussed AI bubble and whether it could significantly shrink after the bubble bursts is something I cannot predict.

For me, if I participate in Anthropic when its market value does not exceed ten thousand dollars, even if subsequent declines occur and its market value falls below ten thousand dollars, I would completely ignore such short-term declines or significant shrinkages, as long as its fundamentals and the competitive moat I value continue to deepen and widen.

I am increasingly aware of the following point:

In any market, in any field, finding a target that you can somewhat understand and is good in all aspects is very, very difficult. If you are fortunate enough to find and hold such a target, and the holding cost is not high, for such a target, as long as its price is not ridiculously high and the fundamentals continue to improve, one should not be too influenced by short-term market sentiment to engage in so-called high selling and low buying.

The above is my relatively comprehensive view on the valuation of Anthropic. This is merely a sharing of my personal opinion, not any investment recommendation.

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