In the past couple of days, there has been much discussion in the market about a group of high-tech companies that may go public this year, including OpenAI and Anthropic.

The suspense and controversy surrounding these two companies have been significant, not only because they are genuine competitors, but also due to the continuous news regarding their IPOs.

For instance, just two days ago (March 31), OpenAI announced the completion of another $122 billion financing. This latest funding has pushed its valuation to $852 billion. Meanwhile, after its last round of funding, Anthropic's valuation is only about $380 billion, which is less than half of OpenAI's latest valuation.

Although OpenAI is very popular in the primary market, it has been rumored that in the secondary market, OpenAI's private equity has unexpectedly cooled, with about six institutions desperately hoping to offload $600 million worth of secondary market shares, but no one took them up on it. On the other hand, there is about $2 billion in funding eager to move into Anthropic, leading to a secondary market quote for Anthropic exceeding $600 billion.

In previous articles, I expressed my optimism for one of the two AI companies that I slightly understand, which is Anthropic.

If OpenAI and Anthropic can indeed go public this year, I believe the opportunities within this would be noteworthy.

Firstly, the US stock market is currently experiencing significant volatility, with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 both retreating about 10% from their highs. If events in the Middle East can continue to stir things up for a while longer and push stock prices down further, that would be ideal.

Secondly, this year, in addition to these two AI companies, larger giants like SpaceX and a number of other star companies are also waiting to go public. Such a scale of fundraising will withdraw a significant amount of liquidity from the overall market.

In this larger context, the IPO prices for OpenAI and Anthropic may not be as high as previously estimated.

Finally, among these two companies, I am particularly looking forward to OpenAI going public first, as this would draw out the liquidity from the AI sector, likely resulting in Anthropic's IPO price not being overly hot.

These are qualitative analyses, and next, let's try a quantitative analysis of Anthropic.

Currently, more than 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from its enterprise (B2B) business, making this its primary source of income.

The United States is different from China. In China, corporate users have a weak willingness to pay, but in the US, as long as the product is good, the willingness and ability to pay among enterprises are strong. Moreover, once corporate users become accustomed to a product, they generally do not change easily. Some well-known legacy tech companies (like IBM, etc.) continue to survive mainly due to their enterprise users.

Additionally, for the enterprise user market, foreign competitors generally find it difficult to enter, and Anthropic itself is one of the top players in this field. Therefore, if it occupies a monopolistic position in the US market, the entry barriers will be quite high.

Thus, I am relatively optimistic about Anthropic's model.

Anthropic's overall revenue has been in a loss position for several years, but judging by the current development momentum, it is estimated that they could achieve breakeven by early 2028 and reach a net profit of about $50 billion around 2030.

If we project from 2030, assuming the company can last for another 20 years, its total net profit would be $1 trillion.

By this fairly rough and approximate estimate, if Anthropic's market value is within $1 trillion, I believe the price is quite fair.

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