In 1602, the Dutch East India Company issued the first stock in human history in Amsterdam. At that time, no one knew what it meant; they only knew that a company wanted to use "the world's money" to conquer "the world's trade."

Four hundred years later, a company called SpaceX quietly submitted a document to the SEC, trying to package the entire space age and sell it to you using the same logic.

The difference is that the valuation of the Dutch East India Company would be about $8 trillion today, while SpaceX "only" needs:

$1.75 trillion.

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX secretly submitted an IPO registration draft to the SEC on April 1, planning to go public as early as June of this year. Codenamed "Project Apex," it has partnered with at least 21 banks for underwriting, targeting a fundraising scale of up to $75 billion—more than three times the largest IPO in U.S. history.

What does $75 billion represent? Saudi Aramco raised about $25.6 billion when it went public in 2019, already an unshakable record of that era. SpaceX simply triples that number and tells you "this is just the beginning."

The $1.75 trillion valuation is even more mind-boggling.

Analysts from Motley Fool have done the math: this is equivalent to a price-to-sales ratio of 113 times SpaceX's sales in 2025. By comparison, another hyped company, AST SpaceMobile, has a price-to-sales ratio of 142 times, and Rocket Lab is at 44 times. SpaceX's multiple falls between the two, but its size is several magnitudes larger than the sum of those two.

To support this number, Musk needs to convince people that several things will simultaneously come true:

Starlink continues to dominate the global satellite internet;

Starship completely rewrites space transportation costs;

An "orbital data center" transforms from concept to reality;

And, Musk himself does not create any incidents—this may be harder to achieve than the previous three.

This is not about buying a company; this is betting on the future of a parallel universe.

But before completely criticizing this valuation, let's talk about what SpaceX actually has.

Starlink is the most solid foundation for this valuation. By February 2026, Starlink's user base officially exceeded 10 million, and the projected revenue for the entire year is expected to reach $24 billion. A satellite internet business that can consistently generate cash flow is worth a considerable premium.

However, a more critical variable occurred in February this year when an internal reorganization codenamed "K2" was completed. Musk's AI company xAI merged with SpaceX, and the Grok large language model was directly integrated into SpaceX's operational structure, forming a system that analysts call an "orbital data center" together with the Starlink satellite network.

This means that SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company or a satellite company; it is packaging itself as a:

"Space AI Infrastructure Company."

The value of this narrative is immense. In 2025, AI infrastructure will be the track that the capital market is most willing to pay a premium for. When Starlink's physical nodes combine with Grok's computational capabilities, SpaceX suddenly has a vision that can benchmark all cloud computing giants.

At the time of the merger, SpaceX's valuation was $1.25 trillion. Just a few months later, the IPO valuation jumped to $1.75 trillion. This $500 billion increment largely represents the premium for the AI narrative.

SpaceX has maintained a peculiar reticence about going public. Musk has repeatedly stated publicly that going public brings short-term pressure, which is detrimental to the company's long-term development. This logic makes sense during a money-burning exploratory phase.

But now it's different.

In mid-March, SpaceX accomplished a key technical milestone: two Starship vehicles successfully completed an in-orbit propellant transfer demonstration in low Earth orbit. One was a tanker variant, and the other was a logistics variant; they docked in space and transferred several tons of cryogenic liquid oxygen.

The significance of this test is that it is the last key piece of the puzzle needed for NASA's Artemis III lunar landing mission. This means that SpaceX is transitioning from a "commercial satellite launch company" to a "national space strategy contractor," and this identity warrants an entirely different valuation logic in the capital markets.

Technological breakthroughs, AI business integration, and the maturation of Starlink's cash flow are three main lines that are simultaneously taking shape—this represents the "optimal time window" for SpaceX's IPO, which Musk clearly also recognizes.

There is also a more immediate pressure.

The IPO window for AI unicorns is narrowing; OpenAI and Anthropic are both planning to go public, and if these two get there first, the market's enthusiasm for AI companies may be diluted. SpaceX's logic is that it must enter at the peak, and the "peak" may be in the first half of 2026.

On March 31, Musk also personally took to the X platform to clarify that Robinhood, SoFi, and other retail brokerages would not be excluded from the IPO. A 30% allocation for retail investors—far higher than the traditional IPO rate of 5% to 10%—indicates that SpaceX wants to turn this IPO into a "space dream" movement that involves everyone.

However, doubts are also real.

Georgetown University finance professor Reena Aggarwal's observation is quite calm: "Even with great enthusiasm, a company still needs a receptive market." Current geopolitical tensions and market volatility are both high; if the market turns before June, the entire plan could be nullified.

Deeper doubts arise from the valuation structure itself.

Analysts from Satellite Today put it bluntly: "The core Starlink business alone cannot support a $1.5 trillion valuation, so you must believe in those more speculative opportunities and trust Elon Musk."

The lunar base is "totally speculative," and the orbital data center is "highly speculative," according to a qualitative assessment from Morningstar's research department.

Moreover, the integration of xAI does not come without costs. Musk's AI business is burning cash at a rapid pace, and some analysts worry that SpaceX's core profits may be used to "subsidize" high-risk AI investments, thereby compressing the actual valuation premium space.

Another structural risk is Musk himself.

He simultaneously runs Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, X, and DOGE, with increasing political involvement in Washington. This implies that SpaceX's stock price is, to some extent, a function of "Musk risk."

Scientific American’s observation is quite incisive—buying SpaceX stock means you accept their way of operating, including explosive failures and spectacular successes.

The SpaceX IPO is a story about belief, not a story about financial statements.

If you believe that Starship will take humanity to the moon, believe that Starlink will become the most important internet infrastructure on Earth, and believe that "orbital data centers" are not just a PPT concept—then $1.75 trillion may be a reasonable starting point.

However, historically, every IPO where "what you're buying is not the company but the future" has ultimately seen someone pay for the premium.

The story of the Dutch East India Company ended in bankruptcy.

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