Author: Blue Fox

To clarify, the content here does not intend to generate traffic or attack BTC, and if BTC really has problems, it will be an issue for the entire industry.

Below is a purely exploratory discussion: How will BTC face the threat of future quantum computing?

Currently, there is a concept in the crypto community called Q-DAY, specifically referring to the day when quantum computers can use "Shor's algorithm" to crack the ECDSA signature algorithm currently used by BTC and ETH.

This means that private keys will no longer be secure, and the wallets' locks will no longer be reliable.

Previously, quantum attacks were considered a far-fetched idea, but now this threat is real.

According to quantum experts, the estimated timeframe is between 2031 and 2038, meaning that in as little as 5-6 years, or as long as 12-13 years, the threat will become practically visible.

This is related to the rapid advancements in quantum hardware and algorithms; according to quantum experts, it used to require millions or even tens of millions of physical quantum bits to crack ECDSA.

However, in the past two years, algorithm optimization and new error-correcting codes will reduce this requirement by more than an order of magnitude. Given the exponential growth of current algorithms and hardware, there is a probability of actual threats arising in as little as 5-6 years.

Therefore, before the arrival of Q-Day, whether it is BTC or ETH, they need to adopt "new locks" (post-quantum signatures).

Ethereum currently has a clear roadmap and an expected completion time (the post-quantum upgrade is expected to be completed around 2029).

The BTC community's roadmap has not yet been finalized.

Due to historical reasons, the BTC community's style has always been "if it can stay unchanged, it will," supporting the principles of immutability and backward compatibility, making any upgrades very difficult for BTC.

It wasn't until last month that BTC first included quantum protection in its roadmap.

On February 11, BIP 360 (Pay-to-Merkle-Root) was officially added to the BIP repository.

The core idea is to remove some "key paths" from Taproot and retain only the script path, significantly reducing quantum exposure. It will facilitate easier integration of quantum-safe signature schemes in the future.

However, it does not mandate anyone to upgrade; it only lays the groundwork for future soft forks.

The complete migration plan (post-quantum migration BIP) is still in the discussion stage and has not yet been formally adopted, which may take about 5-10 years:

• Phase one encourages migration: Prohibiting new funds from flowing to old addresses, encouraging the community to transfer coins to new quantum-safe addresses;

• Phase two mandates new coins: Old addresses can still be spent, but new coins must use new locks;

• The final phase is the most controversial because it involves handling the funds in old addresses: Should old address funds be frozen or burned?

This involves processing a significant portion of BTC: Approximately 25-33% of BTC (around 6-7 million coins are in a state of quantum exposure, including 1 million belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto and other permanently lost BTC). Doing this would violate the longstanding principle of the BTC community: non-interference.

There are also opinions suggesting that there is no need to freeze these BTC; whoever takes them is entitled to them.

If so, 6-7 million BTC could be taken, and if BTC has risen to $300,000 at that time, it would mean this portion has a total value of $1.8 trillion to $2.1 trillion.

The influx of such a large scale of BTC into the market is unimaginable; it’s hard to predict what the market will become.

In summary, the biggest challenge of BTC's quantum protection roadmap now is not the technology, but the governance dilemma: how to coordinate the community.

How to handle the BTC in old addresses is the greatest obstacle to BTC’s future quantum-safe roadmap.

Perhaps in the next 1-2 years, the community will gradually move from arguing to reaching a consensus. After all, time waits for no one.

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