Author: Aleiah, Polymarket Content Creator

Translator: Asher, Odaily Planet Daily

An address on Polymarket rolled $35,000 into $442,000, achieving a 12.6 times return. It is worth noting that this address established its position hours before a significant market movement occurred, and the trades were largely completed before the news spread to mainstream channels. This situation is not an isolated incident; prior to the news of the "Venezuela Raid," three addresses completed their setups in advance and collectively profited $630,000 from the same event.

If such trading occurs in traditional financial markets, people would easily think of information asymmetry. However, in prediction markets, all capital flows and position changes are recorded on a public blockchain, with no hidden accounts or private transactions.

Public does not mean there are no gaps. The key is not whether trades can be seen, but whether the truly meaningful signals can be read from massive amounts of data.

Every Transaction on Polymarket is Public Data

Many participants in prediction markets still view Polymarket as a traditional betting platform: focusing on odds, choosing directions, wagering on outcomes. But Polymarket's underlying structure is completely different from that of DraftKings or ordinary sports betting. All transactions occur on-chain, with capital flows, position sizes, and entry/exit points all publicly accessible. Those addresses with the most accurate judgments and keenest timing have operation paths that are not inferred after the fact but can be seen in real-time on the blockchain.

Polymarket's API is also open. Trading records, market data, historical transactions can all be directly accessed by anyone, with no permission barriers.

Therefore, the gap is not who can see the data, but who can derive meaning from it. On-chain information is public, but what is truly valuable are those wallets that are worth tracking continually, and the ability to identify behavioral changes before prices fully reflect them.

What Characteristics Do Genuine "Insider Addresses" Typically Have?

It is important to emphasize that not all profitable wallets mean insider information. Some traders possess solid research capabilities, while others rely on quantitative models and algorithmic advantages. However, when profitability repeatedly coincides with specific behavioral patterns, certain structural characteristics that differ from "luck" can be observed.

· First Type: New Addresses Combined with Abnormal Large Bets

A wallet that was just created a few days ago and has very few transactions suddenly invests large sums in a low liquidity niche market; this behavior is not common. Especially in the absence of public catalytic factors, large concentrated positioning often carries stronger informational implications.

· Second Type: Highly Vertical Trading Domains

Some addresses do not operate across markets, but instead focus on a specific niche over a long period and maintain a stable and significant win rate in that field. They do not diversify across multiple sectors like crypto prices, elections, sports, etc., but concentrate their efforts on a single theme, with more decisive positioning decisions.

· Third Type: Abnormal Changes in Position Size

When an address that has long bet at a medium scale suddenly increases its position significantly in a certain market, this behavior often indicates a change in judgment intensity. The position itself reflects attitude; sudden changes in size usually indicate an upgrade in information or belief.

· Fourth Type: Overly Accurate Timing Choices

Occasional early positioning can be attributed to coincidence, but if a certain address repeatedly completes positioning hours before major news is announced and the direction is highly consistent, this lead in timing is hard to simply explain as luck. Once is random, repeated instances are more likely to reflect an information advantage.

How to Systematically Filter Potential "Information Advantage Addresses"

· Step One: Analyze Polymarket Leaderboard Performance

Start by looking at the Polymarket Analytics leaderboard (link: https://polymarketanalytics.com/traders), sorting by 30-day profit and loss, using recent stable profit performance as the first filtering criterion. Focus on wallet addresses that have a positive overall return for 30 consecutive days, a win rate above 55%, and that total profits significantly exceed total losses. At the same time, it is necessary to confirm that their trades are concentrated in markets with real liquidity, rather than low transaction volume prediction events with no participants.

The goal of this stage is not to directly determine whether they possess an information advantage, but to build a watchlist of addresses with sustainable profitability. A stable profit record is the basis for subsequent behavior analysis.

· Step Two: Analyze Position Structures in Specific Events

After completing the initial screening, further delve into specific trading events. Enter active prediction markets and check the Top Holders list for that event. Polymarket will publicly display the addresses with the largest current positions; these large positions often represent stronger judgment intensity.

The key is not whether a specific address successfully placed a large bet once, but whether its behavior demonstrates consistency. If a wallet repeatedly appears on the top holders list for multiple important events and these positions are established before the market has fully priced them, then this repetition itself constitutes a signal.

A single successful bet may just be chance, but repeatedly accumulating large positions at an early stage, with consistent direction and results being validated, often indicates that its judgment system has a stable advantage.

· Step Three: Analyze Trading Behavior and Positioning Timing

After filtering candidate addresses, further retrace their on-chain trading histories, focusing on positioning timing, position structure, and holding rhythm.

First, observe the timing of the positioning. If purchases occur hours before news is officially announced and this happens repeatedly, then the time advantage itself becomes an important variable; entering after media reports are released is more likely to be merely information following.

Second, analyze the method of position establishment. Mature traders usually accumulate positions in phases, gradually increasing their stakes, while wallets with strong informational judgments often complete concentrated layouts quickly within a short time due to limited window opportunities.

Furthermore, pay attention to holding periods. Some high-quality addresses choose to exit midway through market momentum rather than wait for extreme volatility, indicating that their goal is to lock in the main trend rather than seek marginal profits.

Finally, observe their trading ranges. Addresses that are highly vertical and focus long-term on a single niche area are more likely to form stable informational advantages; those that frequently operate across various sectors are likely to rely on market sentiment rather than specific domain judgments.

Advanced Address Tracking Strategies

After mastering basic filtering methods, what truly sets one apart is a further breakdown of funding behaviors.

First, attention should be paid to exit behaviors, not just entry timing. Addresses possessing an information advantage often not only position early but also actively reduce holdings before potential negative news appears. When a large address that has held positions steadily for a long time suddenly sells off significantly in the absence of obvious catalytic factors, the informational content is often higher than that of the initial buy behavior. Especially when the reduction reaches a significant percentage, this change itself is a signal.

Secondly, wallet clustering analysis can be conducted using on-chain data. The connections between addresses are not completely non-traceable. Similar funding sources, comparable Gas usage patterns, and continuously occurring trading behaviors within a very short timeframe can reveal relationships between addresses. Many seemingly "new" accounts can often be traced back to a long-activated old address through 2 to 3 transfers. Following funding flow paths helps to identify new potential high-quality accounts before the market has taken notice.

Additionally, attention should be paid to unusual trading volume changes in obscure markets. If a normally low transaction volume market suddenly experiences significant inflow without public news, this structural increase often indicates that some participants have acted in advance. Analyzing the specific addresses responsible for the volume change can help build a new watchlist.

Finally, on-chain behaviors can be cross-verified with external public information. The so-called "Pizza Index" once predicted potential military actions through abnormal changes in order volumes at pizza shops near the Pentagon. Similarly, flight tracking data, social media activity of key figures, and public schedule adjustments may provide evidence or counter-validation for on-chain position behaviors. The linkage between on-chain funding flows and real-world signals often enhances the reliability of judgments.

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