Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone shared on social media platform X on March 1 his view that U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran could trigger reversals in gold and crude oil, arguing that both markets may have already priced in peak geopolitical risk for 2026.

His thesis is that crude and gold were effectively priced for Iran-related escalation, creating meaningful reversion risk after strikes if military action diminishes the embedded war premium. “Rendering Iran defenseless may be the first stage of the US-Israel strikes, with reversion implications for crude oil and gold,” the strategist opined, noting:

“My take is the store of value and industrial commodity were well priced for the risks and may have set 2026 peaks. Bitcoin’s initial dip to $63,000 on Feb. 28 and recovery to $68,000 may augur risk-asset relief.”

“ Gold and crude oil may show signs of peaking if the conflict is quick and infrastructure isn’t impaired,” he further shared. In another post, he wrote: “Absent a sustained supply decline resulting from a U.S.-Israel invasion of Iran, Brent’s year-to-date rise of almost 20% to $72.48 a barrel on Feb. 27 risks turning red.” The comments frame recent strength in commodities as vulnerable without a prolonged disruption to global supply.

McGlone continued:

“If typical swift U.S. military action renders Iran defenseless, both the store of value and the industrial commodity appear vulnerable. Gold is a stretched bull market underpinned by geopolitical tensions.”

The strategist explained: “A subdued Iran could follow Venezuela and Syria, further isolating Russia and China. ‘Unsustainably high’ may describe the 79 barrels of WTI crude oil equal to an ounce of gold on Feb. 27.” He additionally described: “Crude oil is an enduring bear market that jumped to the high end of its range in anticipation of a possible supply cut due to hostilities in the Middle East. The price bounce has allowed Western producers to hedge and bring on more supply, as indicated by backwardation in the futures curve.”

• Could gold and crude oil reverse if U.S.-Israel strikes reduce geopolitical risk?
  Both assets may face downside pressure if military action removes the war premium already priced into markets, according to McGlone.
• Why does the strategist believe commodities may have peaked?
  Gold and oil appear stretched as investors have already priced in escalation without confirmed long-term supply disruption.
• How does oil supply risk influence the investment outlook?
  Without sustained infrastructure damage or meaningful production losses, recent oil gains could unwind.
• What does bitcoin’s rebound signal for broader markets?
  The recovery suggests improving risk sentiment that may reduce safe-haven demand for gold and crude.

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