In fact, today's homework is not difficult to write; it was almost anticipated yesterday. The only unexpected outcome is the continued rise of $CRCL, which really took me by surprise. However, today's pullback in the US stock market has led to a pullback in $BTC, which is very normal. The rise yesterday was partly driven by Circle’s influence on market sentiment, and on the other hand, there was NVIDIA's earnings report confirming that the AI story can continue, but what the market is currently lacking the most is liquidity.

Liquidity is difficult to fully achieve through earnings reports; the most likely source of liquidity upgrade is still the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The rise driven by sentiment tends to last for a shorter period, especially since the article at the top has made it very clear that current institutions and hedge funds, even retail investors, are all in a selling state. The cash reserves of institutions are almost at historical lows, while their positions are very heavy.

In this situation, the rise is very likely to turn into liquidity exit for institutions. Only when the capital reserves of institutions are more ample can it drive an increase in liquidity in the short term. However, this will still take some time; the focus should still be on the monetary policy for the second half of the year and the mid-term elections.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate continues to decline, and trading volume is also decreasing, which indicates that investor buying sentiment is starting to slide. The purchasing power driven by sentiment still cannot be sustained for too long. The decline in the US stock market still prevents investors from chasing after price increases. Of course, earlier investors still show no changes and continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

The data also clearly shows that the chip structure remains very stable, but price changes still depend more on short-term investors. Only during rising phases or when volatility decreases will short-term investors reduce their interest in turnover; for now, we still need to wait.

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