Bitcoin has experienced a sharp decline, which has changed our previous expectation of "rebounding upwards and hitting new highs." Current views need to be partially revised and adjusted.
From the 4-hour level, Bitcoin is currently in a period of medium-term adjustment. Our previous expectation was that the price had a chance to break above the previous high. To briefly review: Last Saturday, the price was still around 67,000, and at that time, it was judged that a breakout of the descending trend line was highly probable. Subsequently, the price indeed broke the trend line and initially rose after a pullback, but it only reached a high of 68,500 before encountering resistance and falling back, failing to create new highs.
Therefore, the overall performance over the weekend was a consolidation, and this morning it welcomed a new decline. This also means that our previous statement of "the expectation for a rebound to break above the previous high" is currently no longer valid, and we need to focus on whether a new downward segment in the major trend will unfold next.
Key resistance level: 68,000
We have repeatedly emphasized that 68,000 is a very critical position. This price level has historically switched between support and resistance many times, making it a typical structural junction.
Even last week, when the price completed a breakout of the channel, it initially encountered resistance near 68,000 and fell back. The reason we still maintained the rebound expectation at that time was because:
A higher low was formed
Accompanied by a trendline breakout
These two points once gave the market the conditions to continue rebounding and challenge the previous high.
But we also clearly reminded that during the second test of this resistance level, it is essential to pay attention to whether it breaks through effectively. If it cannot break through, it likely means that the rebound phase has ended, and the bearish trend will continue.
Ultimately, the answer given by the market is—no breakout, and a significant decline.
Core reasons confirming the structural bearish transition
Why are we now shifting to a bearish view and no longer considering a rebound? There are three core reasons:
First, key resistance was not broken
The price was once again blocked at 68,000, this historical strong pressure zone.
Second, the rebound amplitude was limited
This round of rebound only retraced to the 0.5–0.68 range of the previous decline and then turned back, which itself is a typical area of resistance selling pressure.
Third, the low point pivot was broken
The previous low was lost, structurally forming a "low break," and the bearish structure regained dominance.
Against the backdrop of an already bearish long-term cycle, the short-term again turning bearish often means an increased probability of trend continuation.
Current structural form judgment
From an overall structural perspective, this medium-term adjustment looks more like a converging triangle consolidation. The current significant decline already belongs to a downward breakout signal.
At the same time, it can be observed that:
Phase high points are gradually declining
The previously raised low points have been broken
The high and low points of the waves are starting to move down together
This indicates that the structure has transitioned from oscillation to a bearish trend.
Expected targets below
If the long-term downtrend continues, how should we view the next target?
Referencing the previous round of adjustment structure, once the upward trend line breaks, the theoretical target usually points to the previous low area. Combined with the current structure,
My personal medium to long-term expectation is:
1There is a high probability of testing around the 50,000 integer level below
2It cannot be ruled out that the previous low will break
Therefore, from a spatial perspective, it's not too late to focus on the bears now.
Trading rhythm reference
In terms of rhythm, it is recommended to:
Wait for this round of 4-hour level declines to finish
Wait for a technical rebound in the short cycle
Focus on re-weakening after being pressured at high levels
The key defensive levels of the current structure still reference:
68,000
68,500
As long as the price cannot regain stability above this area, the bearish structure will still dominate.
Yesterday in the group, we participated in Bitcoin shorts. This morning's decline brought a floating profit of over 13,000 USD for a single position.
The reason for choosing to participate in shorts at a high point is based on:
1-hour level key resistance was not broken
Signs of downward movement at the pressure level
The structure is shifting from wide oscillation to narrow oscillation
The overall center of gravity is moving down
This is actually consistent with our previous judgment logic regarding Ethereum: Narrowing oscillation + declining high points = Enhanced bearish signal.
Final summary
In summary, the current market state can be described in one sentence:
The Bitcoin rebound structure has been destroyed
The bearish trend has regained dominance
Pay close attention to the target area near 50,000 in the medium term
Follow me, join the community,let's improve together.
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