The homework today is not difficult. Although Trump has raised global tariffs from 10% to the maximum of 15%, it is still a reduction for some countries or regions. For example, tariffs on China, South Korea, and Japan have actually decreased, while those on the UK and other countries that previously had a 10% tariff have increased slightly. Overall, the impact on the market is not significant, but tariffs are not finished here, and the Trump administration will definitely think of other plans.

In general, this tariff essentially denies the main work of Trump during his one year in office, which is a major blow to Trump and the Republican Party. Going forward, Trump is likely to focus more on the economy, as apart from whether the tariffs will be refunded, there are also concerns about previous investments planned in the U.S. that may continue. These factors will influence Trump's voter base.

Therefore, I personally estimate that if Trump wants to win the election, he is very likely to put effort into the economy, especially lowering interest rates will become a focus for Trump.

Looking back at the Bitcoin data, the decrease in trading volume over the weekend is normal, and the decrease in trading activity is also normal. Additionally, since China's Spring Festival has not completely ended, it has affected market liquidity, but Trump’s tariff decision is still expected to boost market sentiment. From the current situation, Monday's response in U.S. stocks should be decent.

In the short term, refunds will not yield results quickly. The market's focus should return to the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Currently, market expectations for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year have increased.

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