1. In-depth Analysis of Multi-period Technicals (Sister Qinglan Takes You Through K-lines)

15-Minute K-line (Short-term Trend: Weak Fluctuations, Exhaustion of Rebound Momentum)

Selecting 41 recent 15-minute K-lines for review, Bitcoin displays a rapid fluctuation in the short term: the price fell from the 68458 USD level to the low of 66113 USD, triggering a technical rebound, peaking at 67859 USD, and falling back to around 67360 USD currently, with a large fluctuation range, and fierce battles between bulls and bears.

Core Indicator Interpretation:

• MA Moving Average System: During the early morning, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 lines formed a dead cross, with prices continuously constrained by the moving averages; around 9:15 AM today, the MA5 briefly crossed above the MA10 forming a golden cross, leading to a slight rebound in price, but the sustainability of the rebound is insufficient, and the MA5 quickly turned downward. The current arrangement of the moving averages reverted to the bearish pattern of MA20 > MA10 > MA5, highlighting short-term suppressive effects.

• MACD Indicator: The DIF line completed a golden cross below the zero axis, but the MACD histogram (BAR) turned from positive to negative and continues to contract, indicating that short-term rebound momentum is rapidly diminishing. The DIF line is at risk of converging downward to the DEA line, with bearish forces once again taking the upper hand.

• RSI Indicator: After previously peaking at 73 in the overbought zone, it quickly retreated to a low of 36 in the oversold area, followed by a rebound to 59, and has currently fallen back to around 47. The severe volatility of the indicator reflects extremely unstable market sentiment, with frequent tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and a lack of further rebound momentum.

Sister Qinglan's Judgment: The short-term weakness in the fluctuation pattern is clear, the rebound lacks sustainability, and prices are again under downward pressure; do not blindly chase long positions.

1-Hour K-line (Medium-short Term Trend: Weak Rebound in a Downtrend)

Combining analysis of 46 recent 1-hour K-lines, Bitcoin has persistently dropped from above 70000 USD to around 66000 USD, with a significant decline; although there have been slight rebounds recently, the overall downward structure remains unbroken, and the trend still leans toward weakness.

Core Indicator Interpretation:

• MA Moving Average System: MA5, MA10, and MA20 show a clear bearish arrangement, with the moving averages diverging downward. Prices continue to operate below all moving averages, serving as a typical signal of a medium-term downward trend, with noticeable moving average suppressive effects during rebounds.

• MACD Indicator: The indicator is still below the zero axis, with the DIF line attempting to cross above the DEA line; the histogram (BAR) turns from negative to positive and slightly enlarges, indicating that after significant declines, the market has stored some rebound momentum in the short term. However, the rebound force below the zero axis is limited, and one must be wary of a secondary drop after the rebound.

• RSI Indicator: Rising from the extremely oversold range around 30 to about 47, panic sentiment has eased somewhat, but the indicator consistently operates below the 50 threshold, failing to enter strong zones, and the rebound strength is mild, making it difficult to reverse the medium-term downward trend.

Sister Qinglan's Judgment: A weak rebound is present in the downtrend over the medium-short term. The broader direction remains downward, and the rebound is merely a phase of rest in the ongoing decline, not to be misjudged as a trend reversal.

4-Hour K-line (Medium-term Trend: Clear Downward Trend, Momentum Unabated)

Extending the cycle to the 4-hour chart, selecting 24 recent K-lines for observation, Bitcoin has entered a clear downward channel since the beginning of February, with prices continuously dropping from above 76000 USD to the current vicinity of 67000 USD. The medium-term downward trend is clear and steadfast.

Core Indicator Interpretation:

• MA Moving Average System: MA5 < MA10 < MA20 shows a standard bearish arrangement, with all three lines inclined downward. The prices deviate from the moving averages, further confirming the strength of the medium-term downward trend, with strong resistance from moving average suppression.

• MACD Indicator: The indicator is deeply entrenched below the zero axis, with the DIF line continually running below the DEA line; although the negative histogram has begun to converge, indicating a slight slowdown in downward momentum, a golden cross has not yet formed, nor has it breached the zero axis. The medium-term bearish sentiment remains strong.

• RSI Indicator: It has long lingered in the weak range of 30-40, with a recent slight rise to 41.5, merely a short-term oversold correction. There are no clear signs of trend reversal, and the medium-term weak pattern remains unchanged.

Sister Qinglan's Judgment: The medium-term is clearly in a downward trend. The underlying long-term downward momentum remains intact, and the rebound is only a temporary correction. Do not hold onto an unrealistic hope for a medium-term reversal.

Daily K-line (Long-term Trend: Deep Correction, Searching for a Bottom)

Combining a review of 28 recent daily K-lines, Bitcoin has entered a long correction phase since reaching the 90000 USD peak last December, and is currently still in the bottom-seeking stage after significant correction, with a weak long-term trend.

Core Indicator Interpretation:

• MA Moving Average System: MA5, MA10, and MA20 show a bearish arrangement, with all three lines running downward. Prices continue to be suppressed by the moving averages, indicating a clear long-term downward trend with no signs of stabilizing at the bottom.

• MACD Indicator: The indicator has long been below the zero axis, with the DIF line operating below the DEA line. While the negative histogram has gradually reduced, indicating that the speed of decline is slowing, a significant distance remains before forming a bottom reversal golden cross and breaching the zero axis, requiring more time for confirmation of a bottom.

• RSI Indicator: Long-term fluctuations around 30, currently at 30.8, reflect that the market's pessimistic sentiment has reached a high level, with the possibility of a rebound due to overselling, but lacking sufficient driving force for a clear rebound, making it difficult to sustain an upward trend.

Sister Qinglan's Judgment: Long-term is in a bottom-seeking phase after a deep correction. The trend is clearly downward, and any short-term oversold rebound does not alter the long-term pattern. Medium to long-term investors need to patiently wait for confirmation of bottom signals.

2. News-Driven Interactive Analysis (Bearish Dominance, Long-term Bullish Effects Are Hard to Gain Momentum)

Sister Qinglan has always emphasized that technical analysis reflects market behavior, while the news serves as a catalyst for trends. Currently, Bitcoin's movement is the result of a resonance between macro bearish trends and internal market bearishness, which we will dissect one by one:

1. Macro Economic Bearish: Diminishing Rate Cut Expectations, Pressuring Risk Assets

The U.S. non-farm employment data for January vastly exceeded market expectations, directly weakening the Fed's rate cut expectations. Both TD Securities and Citibank have lowered their rate cut expectations and postponed the timeline for the first rate cut; the interest rate futures market simultaneously reflects changes in market expectations, with forecasts of sustained high funding costs. For high-volatility risk assets like Bitcoin, rising funding costs will suppress the entrance of new funds while triggering existing funds to realize profits, directly amplifying downward pressure on prices, which is the core macro logic behind the current market weakness.

2. Internal Market Bearish: Panic Sentiment Spreading, Leveraged Risks Erupting

Currently, the internal bearish trends in the crypto market are being released, with market panic sentiments reaching a temporary peak: First, the liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours reached 471 million USD, of which nearly 300 million USD was from long positions. The excessive market leverage has led to a chain reaction of liquidations from minor price fluctuations, further amplifying the amplitude of fluctuations; secondly, the crypto fear and greed index has dropped to 5, entering the "extreme fear" range, highlighting investors' panic selling sentiment, with bullish forces in the tug-of-war continually weak; thirdly, Bitcoin funding rates continually remain bearish, with institutional investors demonstrating a clear long-term bearish attitude, and a large volume of put options traded, further suppressing price rebounds; fourthly, intense competition around key support levels, particularly the 65000 USD line mentioned in Sister Qinglan's earlier report, is a key liquidation zone for numerous bulls; if effectively breached, it will trigger a new wave of panic selling, further opening downward spaces.

3. Long-term Bullish: Structural Improvement, But Far Water Cannot Quench Near Thirst

We also need to view long-term industry bullish factors objectively: the regulated development of perpetual contracts, with Hong Kong expected to introduce regulatory policies for perpetual contracts, promoting the compliance process in the industry; Citibank has completed tokenized bill transactions on the Solana blockchain, while JPMorgan is optimistic about institutional funds flowing into the crypto market by 2026, reflecting an increased recognition of the crypto industry by traditional finance; Coinbase has launched an AI proxy wallet, upgrading the industry's infrastructure. However, Sister Qinglan wants to remind everyone that these bullish factors are all long-term structural benefits that focus on the long-term development of the industry. They are unlikely to have a short-term uplifting effect in light of current macro bearish pressures and the spread of market panic sentiment, akin to "far water cannot quench near thirst."

The only short-term positive news is Binance clarifying the anomalous outflow data shown by Coinglass, effectively dispelling market FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) sentiment, providing temporary relief from market panic but failing to change the overall bearish-dominated pattern.

3. Practical Trading Suggestions (Sister Qinglan's Exclusive Guidance)

Integrating analysis from multiple technical periods and news-driven interactions, the overall Bitcoin market is currently in a clear downward trend, and any short-term rebound is merely a technical recovery within the ongoing downward motion, and not a signal of trend reversal; macro bearish conditions and internal market bearishness continue to ferment, with investor sentiment extremely pessimistic, and the core trading strategy is “cautiously avoid risks, act according to the trend.”

1. Clear Multi-period Trends

• Short-term (15 minutes): Weak fluctuations, exhaustion of rebound momentum, increasing downward pressure;

• Medium-short term (1 hour, 4 hours): Clear downward trend, weak rebounds hardly alter downward structure;

• Long-term (1 day): Deep corrections in search of a bottom, long-term trend downward, bottoming signals unconfirmed.

2. Key Support and Resistance Levels (Focus on Accurate Control)

• Short-term resistance level: 67800-68000 USD (15-minute rebound high point, dense area of moving average pressure, likely to encounter barriers upon reaching this level);

• Short-term support level: 67000 USD line, with strong support below at 66000-66100 USD (recent decline low point, limited support strength);

• Medium-term resistance level: 69000-69500 USD (previous rebound bottleneck, strong moving average resistance, difficult to breach);

• Medium-term key support level: 65000 USD (core dividing line between bulls and bears, significant liquidation zone for bulls, breach will trigger a new round of declines);

• Long-term resistance level: 70000-72000 USD (previous fluctuation zone bottom, now turns into strong resistance, difficult to surpass in the short term).

3. Reversal Pattern Alerts (Sister Qinglan Emphasizes: Do Not Misjudge)

No reliable bottom reversal patterns (such as double bottoms, head and shoulders, etc.) have appeared across all time frames. The rebounds in the 15-minute and 1-hour charts are merely phase fluctuations within a downtrend, lacking strength; although the MACD indicator shows convergence of the negative histogram, it has not formed a golden cross nor breached the zero axis. The RSI indicator has not effectively broken above the 50 threshold, making it premature to judge a trend reversal. The market is likely to continue its fluctuation and consolidating at lower levels or continue to decline.

4. Type-based Trading Ideas (Adapting to Different Investors, Strictly Controlling Risks)

(1) Overall Core Idea

The primary strategy is to short at highs and remain on the sidelines; before clear bottom signals appear, do not blindly attempt to catch the bottom or operate heavily, act according to the trend, and respect the market.

(2) Short-term Traders (Quick Entry and Exit, Strictly Control Stop-loss)

• Short on rebounds: If prices rebound to the 67800-68000 USD resistance area, consider lightly entering short positions, with stop-loss set above 68200-68500 USD (to avoid false breakout risks), targeting downward toward 67000 USD, after which a further drop could be sought down to near 66000 USD;

• Follow the downtrend: If the 66000 USD support level is effectively breached with increased volume and along with breaking the 65000 USD key liquidation zone, consider lightly entering short positions accordingly, targeting lower intervals. Strictly set trailing stop-losses to lock in profits;

• Betting on excessive declines: If prices drop sharply causing the RSI to fall below 20 in the extremely oversold zone, and a bottom-loading volume stabilization signal occurs, one could lightly bet on short-term rebounds, with stop loss set below the stabilization low point. Act quickly and do not linger (this kind of operation bears high risks; is not recommended for non-professional short-term traders).

(3) Medium to Long-term Investors (Patience and Precision in Layout)

• The current time is not suitable for large-scale positioning, as the market is still in a bottom-seeking process. As analysts have suggested, there may be “better entry points” ahead, do not rush to catch the bottom and end up with losses;

• Focus on tracking the 65000 USD key support level. If this level is breached, significant downward space may occur, requiring further waiting for bottoming signals;

• Confirmation of entry signals: Wait for a clear bottom reversal pattern at the daily level (such as a large bullish candle, forming a double bottom), alongside the MACD indicator forming a golden cross below the zero axis and the histogram continues to expand, and the RSI indicator effectively rises from the oversold zone and stabilizes above 50, after these three resonate, consider entering positions gradually, strictly control the position size, and prepare for long-term holding.

Sister Qinglan's Warm Reminder (Must-Read!)

The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile, especially with the current prevalence of high-leverage trading, significantly increasing risk factors. Sister Qinglan's crypto class emphasizes the core of investing is to preserve capital, not to pursue short-term windfall profits. All investing friends must manage their funds properly, control their positions rationally, set strict stop-loss and take-profit limits, avoid blindly following trends or harboring unrealistic hopes, and maintain rationality and respect in the market to achieve long-term survival and steady profits.

For more on the quantitative analysis of the impact of real-time news on market sentiment, it has been updated in my Qinglan Crypto Classroom: www.qinglan.org

Finally, Sister Qinglan would like to share a famous trading quote with everyone, to encourage all (exclusive message from Qinglan Crypto Classroom):

“The market is always right, what is wrong is our obsession and greed; act according to the trend, not against it. Respect the market and do not follow blindly, to achieve stability and longevity in the crypto market.”

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