Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! BTC's four cycles + dual perspective on news, guiding you to step in sync with the crypto market rhythm.
Cycle trends and technical analysis intertwined
Daily chart (long-term trend) — Weak rebound in a downtrend, facing significant pressure
Trend: The larger cycle is undoubtedly a weak oscillation after a decline. After plummeting from over 90,000, the price has been repeatedly testing the 65,000-71,000 range. The MA5/10/20 moving averages are in a standard bearish arrangement, with the price firmly pressed below. The MACD is below the zero line; although the green bars have shortened (indicating divergence), the distance between the two lines is still far, indicating that bearish momentum is merely weakening, far from reversing.
Key levels: The upper resistance is at 72,000-73,000 (previous low conversion + moving average pressure), and the lower life support is at 65,000 (recent multiple bottom-testing area). If it doesn't stabilize above 72,000, talking about a reversal is just nonsense.
- 4-hour chart (mid-term trend) — Ongoing oversold rebound, but facing a critical test
Trend: This is the most critical cycle currently! A clear oversold rebound structure has emerged. After pulling back from a low of around 62,900, the MACD formed a bottom divergence below the zero line, and the DIF line has crossed above the DEA and is strongly pushing towards the zero line, which is a positive signal. However, the price has just rebounded to the MA20 moving average (around 70,000) and the lower edge of the previous dense trading area, encountering significant resistance.
Key levels: 71,000-71,500 is the dividing line for the strength of the rebound; a breakout would look towards 73,000. 69,000 is a short-term battleground for bulls and bears, and it must not be lost.
- 1-hour chart (short-term trend) — Rebound momentum weakening, entering high-level oscillation
Trend: Perfectly illustrates "rebound - encountering resistance - oscillation." After a surge in volume early in the morning (breaking 70,000), the momentum could not be sustained, and the MACD fast line flattened above the zero line, with red bars appearing, indicating that short-term bullish strength is waning. The price is consolidating in a range between 69,500-70,500.
Key levels: The upper edge of the range is 70,500-70,800, and the lower edge is 69,500-69,200. If it breaks below the lower edge, the rebound may come to an end.
- 15-minute chart (micro rhythm) — Tug-of-war between bulls and bears, searching for direction
- Trend: This is a micro version of the 1-hour cycle, bouncing up and down in a small range. The MACD is repeatedly sticking near the zero line, and the RSI hovers around 50, a typical directionless oscillation. It is waiting for guidance from a larger cycle.
- The news front: a cold shower and a spark
The news front is like ice and fire:
Cold water (bearish): The market's "extreme fear index" has dropped to 9, indicating that retail investor sentiment is on the brink of collapse. Goldman Sachs warns that hedge funds are aggressively shorting U.S. stocks, and macro risks remain. The sentiment in ETH derivatives is bearish, and large whales are facing losses on high-leverage long positions, indicating that big funds are very cautious.
Spark (bullish): Bitcoin has broken through the psychological barrier of 70,000. The Federal Reserve plans to open a "streamlined account" for crypto institutions, which is a long-term institutional benefit. The legislative process for the U.S. crypto bill is accelerating, reducing policy uncertainty. U.S. crypto stocks and gold have surged in sync, indicating that some risk-averse/speculative funds are flowing back into risk assets. Institutions like Bitmine are continuously buying ETH.
- Our predictions and trading ideas
Combining technical analysis and news, the flavor emerges: the market is in the first strong rebound phase after a long-term decline, but confidence is extremely fragile, resembling a "startled bird" rebound.
Trend predictions:
Long-term (daily): The downtrend remains unchanged.
Mid-term (4-hour): Oversold rebound, facing a critical pressure test at 71,000-71,500; this is the most important observation point of the week.
Short-term (1 hour and below): High-level oscillation, leaning weak. If it cannot stabilize above 70,500, it will likely fall back to test support.
Key level summary:
Strong resistance: 71,500 > 73,000
Weak resistance/bull-bear boundary: 70,500-70,800
Strong support: 69,500 > 68,000 > 65,000
Trading ideas (for reference):
Aggressive traders (mainly short): In the 70,800-71,500 area, combined with 1-hour MACD top divergence or candlestick reversal patterns (like pin bars), can try a small short position, with a stop loss above 72,000, targeting 69,500 and 68,000.
Conservative traders (wait and see or low long): Absolutely do not chase highs. If the price can pull back to the 69,000-69,500 support area and show stabilization signals (like a long lower shadow on the 1-hour chart + RSI bottom divergence), can try a small long for a rebound, with a stop loss below 68,500, targeting 70,500-71,000. If it directly breaks out and stabilizes above 71,500, then the strategy should shift to buying on a pullback.
Core: The current market is highly volatile and emotionally charged. Position sizes must be light; consider yourself an observer rather than a front-line soldier. Focus on the performance of the 4-hour MACD near the zero line.
For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, check out my Qinglan Crypto Class at www.qinglan.org
Finally, I’ll leave you with today’s insight: “Seek the spark of value in panic, be wary of the undercurrents of risk in rebounds; the true art of trading is managing your position well amid uncertainty.” Alright, see you in the market, stay tuned! Qinglan Crypto Class
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