I see many friends asking about the probability of CME $BTC filling the gap, and this probability is calculated by myself based on Bitcoin daily line gap data from 2019 to 2026, covering 7 years.

1. The historical gap filling rate is around 95%.

2. The probability of filling the gap within one week after it occurs is about 55%.

3. The probability of filling the gap within two weeks after it occurs is about 65%.

4. The probability of filling the gap within three weeks after it occurs is about 81%.

5. The probability of filling the gap within one year after it occurs exceeds 90%.

So my personal judgment is that it is highly likely to fill within three weeks; if it has not filled after three weeks, it becomes difficult to determine the time of filling, and not all gaps will be filled.

Some gaps may even last more than a year; the longest-maintained gap in my statistics is the gap from December 28, 2020, which was not filled until June 13, 2022.

Filling gaps is a metaphysics, but this metaphysics can be explained using probability.

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