Today's homework is relatively easy to write, and the market feels quite calm. Recently, my attention to macro data has not been intense, mainly because all data now may not determine the Federal Reserve's monetary policy after June. If Waller is the spokesperson for Trump, then whether the data is good or bad will not change the direction of interest rate cuts. However, if Waller comes to power and becomes the second Powell, although it will be more difficult in 2026, the probability of risks appearing in the United States will decrease in the future.
So I personally believe that all current data is not the most important, but rather how many "nails" Trump can plant within the Federal Reserve and how much "weight" the Federal Reserve chairman can have. The most interesting scenario I can think of is Waller, along with a few other governors, calling for easing, while most governors insist on looking at the data. However, some friends say that the Fed chairman's decisions on interest rates are more important, and I’m waiting to see.
The market in the first half of the year may not be easy. Before the Fed chairman takes office, Trump's tariffs should be predictable in impacting the market, but I guess we'll have to wait until after the New Year to discuss it.
Looking at the data of Bitcoin, although it seems like there is a dense sell-off, the actual turnover is not that high, and one could even say it's a normal state. Moreover, it can be clearly seen that the main force behind the turnover is short-term investors. Many friends actually expect the future price of $BTC to rise, so the more they lose, the less willing they are to sell. However, everyone is waiting for lower prices, and the lack of liquidity leads to insufficient purchasing power.
From the perspective of chip structure, it's very clear that there isn't much change in the chips on both sides of the URPD; most investors are still in a wait-and-see attitude, but panic has increased the selling of short-term investors. What the current market mainly lacks is still confidence.
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