As of Monday, Feb. 2, 2026, bitcoin was trading at $78,640 per coin, roughly 37.6% below its all-time high above $126,000 set in early October 2025. In a research note summarized publicly on X, Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, said the market’s recent behavior points to additional downside risk.

Thorn said the analysis was circulated to Galaxy clients Sunday before being posted online, framing the move as an update rather than a hot take. His core argument is straightforward: bitcoin has lost key technical levels, while onchain data shows limited signs of aggressive dip-buying.

Bitcoin’s late-January selloff saw prices slide sharply, including a steep weekend drop that triggered more than $2 billion in long liquidations across futures venues, according to Galaxy’s report. The move briefly pushed bitcoin below several widely watched cost bases, including the average entry price for U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Thorn noted that bitcoin has now logged four consecutive red monthly closes, a pattern last seen in 2018. Historically, similar drawdowns from all-time highs have often extended further before finding durable support, he wrote.

One focal point in the analysis is the so-called supply gap between roughly $70,000 and $80,000, where relatively few coins last changed hands onchain. Thorn argues that thin ownership in this range could make it easier for prices to drift lower as the market searches for demand.

Galaxy’s data also shows nearly 46% of bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently held at a loss, a figure that has tended to rise toward a near-even split at prior cycle bottoms. That convergence, while not yet complete, is moving in that direction.

Macro conditions add another layer of pressure. Thorn pointed out that bitcoin has underperformed traditional hedges such as gold and silver in recent months, dulling its appeal during a period of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Still, the note stops well short of calling a crash. Thorn emphasized that levels near bitcoin’s realized price and its 200-week moving average—both in the high-$50,000 range—have historically attracted long-term buyers. If prices slide toward those areas, they could again serve as accumulation zones, he said.

For now, the message from Galaxy’s research desk is cautious rather than catastrophic: the trend looks heavy, catalysts are scarce, and patience may be required before bitcoin finds firmer footing.

• Why does Galaxy think bitcoin could fall further?
  Galaxy’s analysis cites broken technical levels, weak accumulation signals, and onchain supply gaps that may allow prices to drift lower.
• What price levels are being watched as potential support?
  The report highlights bitcoin’s realized price and 200-week moving average in the high-$50,000 range as key long-term areas.
• How far is bitcoin from its all-time high?
  As of Feb. 2, 2026, bitcoin is about 37.6% below its October 2025 peak above $126,000.
• What onchain trend suggests a potential bottom may be forming later?
  The report shows long-term holder profit-taking has slowed, a pattern seen near prior cycle lows.

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