Bitcoin Bear: After a drop to 1.31 Bitcoin, it has started to rebound, while Ethereum is oscillating around the 2700 mark. Market analysis and thought process explanation.

CN
16 hours ago

Bitcoin Market Analysis

  1. Price Trend and Support Resistance

    • The current price is consolidating around 84000, which is a recent balance point for bulls and bears.

    • The important support level below is 81437.9, where the price previously rebounded after hitting a low.

    • The clear resistance level above is 85000, where the price has attempted to break through multiple times but has not been able to hold.

  2. Moving Average System Signals

    • The short-term moving average (white) is showing an upward turn, while the long-term moving average (blue) is flat, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is gradually accumulating, but the mid-term trend is not yet clear.

    • The lower pink moving average continues to rise, indicating that the current rebound structure from the low has not been broken.

  3. Momentum and Patterns

    • From the candlestick pattern, the price has entered a consolidation phase after a rapid decline, with recent red and green candlestick bodies being relatively small, indicating a temporary stalemate between bulls and bears.

    • The dotted indicator in the chart is also rising along with the price, reflecting that short-term buying momentum is being released gently.

  4. Key Observation Points for the Future

    • Upward Breakout: If the price can break out with volume and stabilize in the 84500-85000 range, it is likely to open up new upward space.

    • Downward Pullback: If it falls below 83000, it will test the strength of the 81437.9 support level. If it fails to hold, the rebound trend may face reversal risks.

    • 📊 Key Price Trading Plan

      1. Bullish Trigger Conditions

      • Entry Signal: Price breaks out with volume above 84500 and stabilizes above 85000.

      • Stop Loss: Set at 83800 (the lower edge of the consolidation range before the breakout).

      • Target: First target at 86000, second target at 88000 (previous resistance level).


      2. Bearish Trigger Conditions

      • Entry Signal: Price effectively breaks below 83000 and confirms the failure of 81437.9 support on a pullback.

      • Stop Loss: Set at 83500 (the upper edge of the consolidation range before the breakdown).

      • Target: First target at 80000 (round number), second target at the previous low of 79000.


      3. Consolidation Range Response Strategy

      • When the current price is oscillating in the 83000-84500 range, it is recommended to mainly observe or engage in short-term operations of buying low and selling high.

      • Sell High: Sell when approaching 84500, with a stop loss set at 84800.

      • Buy Low: Buy when approaching 83000, with a stop loss set at 82700.

      • Ethereum Market Analysis:

        1. Trend and Phase

          • This is a typical mid-term decline + short-term oversold rebound trend. The price has been declining from around 2860, reaching a low of 2633.66 before stabilizing.

          • The current price is consolidating around 2700, in a recovery phase after being oversold, but the mid-term downtrend has not been completely reversed.

        2. Moving Average System Signals

          • Both the long-term moving average (blue) and short-term moving average (white) are showing a downward trend, indicating that mid-term bearish momentum still dominates the market.

          • The lower pink moving average shows signs of flattening after hitting a low, reflecting that buying is starting to enter slightly after the short-term oversold condition, but momentum is still relatively weak.

          • The dotted indicator in the chart has also turned up from a low after following the price down, confirming the short-term rebound demand.

        3. Support and Resistance

          • Key Support: 2633.66 is the recent low and an important defensive level for bulls; the next is the round number 2680.

          • Key Resistance: The recent resistance level above is in the 2720-2740 range (the lower edge of the previous consolidation platform), with stronger resistance at 2760 (moving average resistance level).

        4. Key Observation Points for the Future

          • Upward Repair: If the price can break out with volume above 2740, the rebound space is expected to open up, with the next target being 2760-2780.

          • Re-Test of the Low: If it cannot stabilize above 2700, it may pull back to test the 2633.66 support, or even create a new low.

          • 📊 Trading Plan at the 2700 Level

            1. Bullish Trigger Conditions

            • Entry Signal: Price breaks out with volume above 2720 and stabilizes above 2740.

            • Stop Loss: Set at 2690 (below the 2700 round number).

            • Target: First target at 2760 (moving average resistance), second target at 2780 (previous platform level).


            2. Bearish Trigger Conditions

            • Entry Signal: Price effectively breaks below 2690 and confirms the failure of 2680 support on a pullback.

            • Stop Loss: Set at 2710 (above the 2700 round number).

            • Target: First target at 2650 (near the previous low), second target at 2633.66 (historical low).


            3. Consolidation Range Response Strategy

            • When the current price is oscillating in the 2690-2720 range, it is recommended to mainly observe or engage in short-term operations of buying low and selling high.

            • Sell High: Sell when approaching 2720, with a stop loss set at 2730.

            • Buy Low: Buy when approaching 2690, with a stop loss set at 2680.

            • (Note: 📣 Due to the timeliness and depth limitations of information on public platforms, the market is ever-changing. Key turning points, precise operational strategies, and sudden risk alerts need to be synchronized in real-time on (public account - Bit Bear). Here, you can obtain: real-time strategy push, in-depth analysis support, interactive Q&A, risk warnings, and optimization suggestions for personal positions. 🚨 Remember: The market always rewards those who act faster and have more accurate information! Be a winner among the minority.)

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