Last night, the Bitcoin market experienced a significant drop again. In the past 2-3 days, the overall decline has exceeded 7,000 points, and the trend has clearly accelerated.
Regarding the market direction, I had already given a clear opinion a long time ago: continue to hold short positions. I also reminded again yesterday—an imminent crash, hold onto your shorts. If you had fully followed this entire downtrend, the overall profit margin has already exceeded 10,000 points.
If there are friends who have followed the recent analysis, feel free to share your entry points and profit/loss situation.
Review of Bearish Logic
The core viewpoint of being bearish was given after the 94,000 level was broken. At that time, we clearly judged that this position would likely first lead to a short squeeze and a false bullish signal, followed by a decline. The rebound target was set around 98,000.
In actual market movement, the highest point reached over 97,900, just a few dollars short of 98,000, basically hitting the target. Subsequently, we clearly shifted to a bearish mindset in the top area, with a short-term target pointing to the previous low of 80,000.
At that time, we repeatedly emphasized that this segment was not a complex adjustment but the beginning of a new downtrend.
Current Market Position Assessment
The current price is running around 83,000, and the short-term downward target has already completed over 2/3. As of now, the market still has not shown any clear bottom reversal signals, so continue to hold short positions.
It should be noted that 13 days ago, we already indicated that the market was approaching the top. At that time, Bitcoin broke through 94,000, and then the price ran to around 98,000, completing the rebound target, and the strategy officially switched to a long-term short.
Shorting Opportunity at 90,000
After the 94,000 support was broken, we basically confirmed the beginning of a new downtrend. We also mentioned that if you missed the first wave of shorts, the round number of 90,000 would provide a second entry opportunity.
90,000 was previously a support level, which turned into resistance after being broken. In actual market movement, the pullback reached a maximum of 90,500, without breaking 91,000, so with 91,000-92,000 as a defensive range, short positions are very safe.
Even if short positions are laid out around 89,000-90,000, there is still a downward space of 7,000-8,000 points down to 81,000-82,000.
Structure and Trend Assessment
The core of this market segment can be summed up in one sentence: go with the trend.
This is not a simple adjustment, but a confirmed daily-level downward continuation. The previous horizontal resistance level has been broken, completing the short squeeze and false bullish signal, and the market has officially entered the main downtrend, which is highly similar to the key phase in the previous bear market.
Key Focus for the Future
The round number of 80,000 is the short-term target for this downtrend, and it is now very close. From shorting around 95,000-96,000 down to below 80,000, the maximum decline is close to 15,000 points.
Currently, the price is around 81,000, and medium to long-term short positions can consider partial profit-taking, which is reasonable. We need to observe whether there is an effective rebound structure after breaking below 80,000.
It is important to emphasize that 80,000 does not mean the end of the market. From a long-term perspective, there is still a risk of further breaking the previous low, and the focus should shift to the 70,000 area.
At this stage, it is not recommended to blindly catch the bottom. If a rebound occurs, long positions can be abandoned, but in a clear trend, short opportunities are more worth seizing.
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