1. Bitcoin: Adjustment Basically Ended, Probability of New High is Low
In the short term, a rebound or fluctuation cannot be ruled out, but if the market makes another clearly higher point, I believe the possibility is very small.
Recently, some friends have asked whether there is a possibility of breaking above 98,000 and then turning down.
My view is: the probability is low.
From a time structure perspective, the previous decline lasted about a month and a half, and the current round of adjustment is also approaching a month and a half, showing an overall 1:1 time correspondence.
If the adjustment time continues to extend, it often means that demand appears in advance, which is actually unfavorable for subsequent declines.
Historically, we can see that intervals with excessively long adjustment times are more about bottoming rather than a continuation of the decline. The current adjustment has already shown:
- Wide fluctuation range
- Gradually higher swing highs and lows
This type of structure is more inclined towards completing a mid-term structure rather than continuing to rise after a further increase.
Previously, we provided a rebound expectation high point around 98,000.
For those who have already positioned long-term shorts above, it is mainly about defense, and there is no need for frequent entry and exit.
2. Liquidation Logic: Why the Market Often "Moves in the Opposite Direction First"
In a bullish trend, the market often clears longs by continuously creating lower lows;
while in a bearish trend, it clears shorts by continuously raising highs.
The purpose is singular: to clean up high-leverage chips, allowing the trend to advance more smoothly.
From recent movements:
- There was a significant volume drop earlier
- Followed by consecutive bearish candles
- The last two days have only seen low-level consolidation, with demand not significantly increasing
This structure does not support making a clearly higher point.
3. Ethereum: Continuation Structure, Probability of Equidistant Decline is High
Let’s start with the conclusion:
Ethereum resembles a continuation structure, with a higher probability of equidistant decline, and the low point may be below 2,000.
On the daily level, the most critical support and resistance exchange zone is concentrated between 3,000 and 2,800.
This range has repeatedly completed support, breakdowns, rebounds, and resistance transitions, making it a typical area of concentrated chips.
However, it has currently broken below this range, and if a deeper washout is to be completed, further probing of the support below is a reasonable path.
4. 2,000: Important Psychological Level, But May Not Hold
2,000 is a clear integer level and a psychological defense line for most bulls.
Because of this, this position is more likely to become a target for concentrated liquidation.
I personally believe that the probability of breaking below 2,000 is high, and this position is more likely to become a low point for a targeted liquidation rather than the final bottom.
5. Cycle Judgment: Adjustment in the First Half, Look for Upsurge in the Second Half
Overall, I still maintain my original judgment:
This year's market is more inclined to complete adjustments in the first half
And then start a new uptrend in the second half
The decline process will not be as prolonged as in the past, but rather lean towards rapid declines and quick washouts.
If the current phase continues to extend sideways, it will instead delay the overall rhythm, and this possibility is relatively small.
Summary
- Bitcoin: Bearish structure unbroken, adjustment basically ended
- 98,000 is the upper limit of rebound expectations
- Ethereum: Continuation structure, probability of equidistant decline is high
- 2,000 is an important psychological level, but breaking below is not ruled out
- Overall, it leans towards: quickly completing adjustments rather than long-term fluctuations
Tomorrow is Sunday, and the views will not be updated; new ideas will continue to be shared on Monday.
In the short term, the market is expected not to show significant fluctuations.
For more strategies, join the community, and let's progress together.
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