On January 17, 2026, Eastern Standard Time, the technical aspects of Bitcoin are gradually warming up from the previous adjustment period, with on-chain and derivative indicators recovering. However, the price continues to fluctuate under the shadow of macroeconomic and political uncertainties. On one side, long-term funds are returning after a cooling of speculative sentiment, while on the other, risks stemming from the Federal Reserve's path, political maneuvering in the U.S., and security events are causing swings in risk appetite, collectively shaping a market atmosphere that feels somewhat repressed yet is bubbling beneath the surface. In this context, three clear main lines are emerging: the selling pressure from long-term holders has significantly weakened, there is a continuous large-scale net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges, and institutional expectations regarding future allocation ratios are heating up. These clues point towards a new phase that leans more towards "locking up" and "accumulating" assets. However, at the same time, from the Trust Wallet vulnerability leading to the theft of approximately $8.5 million in assets, to the market's re-evaluation of the interest rate cut path for 2026 following Trump's signals regarding Federal Reserve personnel, security and policy variables continue to disrupt price rhythms. Amid the intertwining of security events and policy maneuvering, whether Bitcoin is building momentum for a new upward cycle or merely experiencing another phase of rebound driven by macro noise is a key question investors are currently trying to clarify.
On-Chain Signals of Weakened Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders
A key indicator for measuring the selling willingness of long-term holders is the 90-day moving average of spent UTXOs. According to the latest on-chain data, this value has fallen from a previous high of about 2,300 BTC to approximately 1,000 BTC, indicating that the average number of Bitcoins being spent and awakened from a dormant state has nearly halved over the past three months. CryptoQuant analyst DarkFrost judges that the selling pressure from long-term holders has significantly eased, and the current behavior pattern is more aligned with continued holding rather than selling at highs. Historically, phases of intensive reduction by these long-term holders often correspond to profit-taking periods following significant price increases, after which the chips tend to flow back into long-term addresses, with on-chain activity cooling but holding duration indicators rising, marking a "re-dormancy phase." The current 90-day average spending volume has clearly deviated from the rhythm of high selling periods, resembling a cooling and re-locking phase after a distribution, which often reflects optimism about medium to long-term trends rather than short-term profit-seeking. In terms of price dynamics, weakened selling pressure from long-term holders will directly alter the shape of the "sell wall" below: as large-scale chips willing to sell at lower prices begin to shrink, the density of large sell orders encountered during market downturns will decrease, naturally alleviating the pressure on price bottoms. In other words, even though short-term volatility and pullbacks are still unavoidable, from a longer-term perspective, the retreat of selling pressure leaves more elastic space for potential upward movements, allowing prices to test new incremental funds at higher ranges without being constantly suppressed by large historical chips.
Migration of Exchange Chips and Restructuring of Liquidity
In tandem with the slowdown in long-term holders' selling, since December 2024, Bitcoin has continued its trend of net outflow from centralized exchanges. On-chain data indicates that more BTC is leaving easily tradable on-exchange wallets and moving into addresses that are harder to access frequently, which is consistent with the decline in the spent UTXO indicator: on one hand, there is a lack of large-scale profit-taking from old chips, and on the other, new purchases or existing holders are choosing to move their assets off exchanges, collectively shaping a pattern of "chip contraction outside the circulating supply." In terms of specific flow characteristics, short-term traders often flee to deposit into exchanges, increasing the proportion of sellable chips, while the current main theme is a transfer in the opposite direction, from exchange hot wallets to long-term storage addresses. These addresses typically exhibit low-frequency operations, high holding durations, and even on-chain characteristics tied to custodial institutions or cold wallet solutions, indicating a focus on allocation rather than high-frequency trading. This structural shift is changing liquidity supply: as exchange inventories continue to decline and instantly available spot chips decrease, any sudden buying or panic selling in the short term will more easily lead to slippage in the order book, amplifying price volatility and weakening the market's apparent "stability." However, from a longer perspective, the reduction in circulating supply enhances Bitcoin's supply scarcity premium, and when new institutions and long-term funds seek to increase their allocation ratios, they will need to compete for existing chips on a thinner order book, which often translates into a steeper upward slope during market rallies.
Price Spring After Negative Correlation with Gold
In terms of macro asset correlation, the relationship between Bitcoin and gold has shifted from a previously positive correlation to a current clear negative correlation. Historical samples show that when the two diverge from being linked, especially during the phase when Bitcoin is negatively correlated with gold, it often records an average increase of about 56% in the following approximately two months. This statistic does not guarantee future outcomes but provides a probabilistic reference for discussing Bitcoin's potential upward space. In an environment where macro uncertainty and risk aversion coexist, gold continues to play the role of a traditional safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin has not simply replicated this attribute; instead, it has been re-priced as a "high beta risk asset" during many periods, more akin to tech stocks or growth stocks. This means that when interest rate expectations, liquidity conditions, or risk appetite improve, Bitcoin will exhibit greater price elasticity relative to gold, while during periods of dominant risk aversion, it may be sold off in exchange for dollars or government bonds, resulting in movements opposite to those of gold. The current negative correlation pattern can largely be understood as a process of compressing the price spring: when gold is supported by safe-haven buying, Bitcoin is suppressed by political and regulatory noise, compounded by the fact that institutional allocation rhythms have not fully ramped up, causing part of the price upward potential to be temporarily "accumulated" in on-chain behavior and chip structure. The widely circulated target price of $107,000 is not based on a single model but rather a comprehensive judgment of various technical and historical statistics. Simply multiplying the average 56% increase following the negative correlation phase with the current price range is not rigorous, but this historical experience at least suggests that under similar macro conditions, Bitcoin has repeatedly completed "compensatory pricing" for previous suppressions through steep increases. Whether this will happen again depends on whether the macro narrative and capital behavior can resonate in the coming months.
Trump, the Federal Reserve, and the Pressured Technical Aspects
Almost simultaneously with the warming of on-chain indicators, fluctuations in U.S. political and monetary policy expectations are becoming important external variables suppressing Bitcoin's price performance. Recent signals from Trump regarding Federal Reserve personnel have triggered a market re-evaluation of future monetary policy directions, particularly the 2026 interest rate cut path, with the focus not on specific candidates but on whether the policy inclination is likely to be more hawkish or dovish. When interest rate cut expectations fluctuate, institutional risk appetite and asset allocation sequences also adjust accordingly: when easing expectations remain strong, the stock market, credit assets, and high beta varieties often benefit first, with Bitcoin viewed alongside tech stocks as a high-risk, high-elasticity asset; however, once interest rate cut expectations are delayed or weakened, funds tend to flow back into cash, short-term bonds, and gold, which are more stable assets. Bitcoin occupies a "middle layer" position between the stock market and gold: its risk exposure and volatility are higher than gold, yet it possesses some macro hedging and "digital gold" narrative, causing it to be viewed as either a growth-oriented risk asset or a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation at different stages. This dual identity creates a tug-of-war in the current environment: technical indicators show weakened selling pressure and increased chip locking, providing internal conditions for price to break upward, but the repeated macro narrative keeps institutions cautious about timing their increased positions as they reassess the 2026 interest rate trajectory. The result is that prices are temporarily "pressed down" by sentiment and policy expectations, while on-chain data, long-term holder behavior, and the potential allocation intentions of some institutions are pricing in the future on a deeper level, creating a temporal dislocation between technical and macro factors.
Security Events and the Confidence Curve
Parallel to these macro and on-chain variables is the security test facing the crypto industry itself. Trust Wallet has disclosed that its browser extension version 2.68 has a serious vulnerability, leading to the theft of approximately $8.5 million in assets. This fact sharply contrasts with its long-standing emphasis on security and self-custody narratives and has caused a short-term impact on retail confidence. For ordinary users, macro-level clues like the slowdown in long-term holders' selling and the stirring of institutional funds often feel abstract and distant, while specific events like wallet thefts and permission abuses are direct and destructive. At a time when the selling pressure from long-term holders is retreating and market funds are expected to re-enter, similar security incidents can directly suppress on-chain activity, delaying the pace of new funds entering the market and causing incremental funds that should flow smoothly between wallets and exchanges to choose to temporarily observe or remain on centralized platforms. Elevating the perspective to the institutional level, custodial and security infrastructure is a critical threshold that Bitcoin must cross before being widely included in asset allocation tables. Whether traditional asset management institutions or compliant funds looking to access Bitcoin through ETFs, trusts, and other products, there are far higher requirements for private key management, multi-signature, compliant custodians, and insurance mechanisms than for retail investors. Each security incident involving wallets or bridging protocols leaves new samples in these institutions' internal risk control models, thereby delaying larger-scale allocation decisions. Therefore, even though decentralized self-custody remains a core component of Bitcoin's narrative in the long term, before opening the doors to larger institutional funds, the construction of custodial and security infrastructure remains a structural shortcoming that must be addressed.
Path Choices After Selling Pressure Hits Bottom
Considering the three main lines of weakened selling pressure from long-term holders, continuous net outflow from exchanges, and the shift to negative correlation with gold, it can be seen that Bitcoin is currently in a phase resembling a "chip locking period before a breakout." Long-term holders are no longer cashing out profits on a large scale, the circulating supply is gradually contracting outside exchanges, and the negative correlation with gold suggests that Bitcoin's price elasticity is quietly accumulating between macro risk aversion and the rotation of risk assets. These signals collectively point in one direction: barring extreme black swan events, the upcoming large-scale fluctuations are more likely to test upward space rather than deeply probe for new lows again. However, this does not mean that the road to $107,000 will be a smooth straight line. Personnel and policy expectations related to Trump, the Federal Reserve's communication regarding the interest rate trajectory for 2026 and beyond, as well as other regulatory and compliance variables, may still interrupt upward momentum at any stage, creating sharp pullbacks and emotional stampedes, making this target price fraught with reversals and risks along the way rather than a simple one-sided trend. Looking ahead, key observation points worth tracking include: whether the number of long-term holders on-chain and the holding duration indicators continue to rise, whether exchange inventories continue to decline or show signs of temporary replenishment, whether the subscription and redemption data for institutional products (such as various compliant investment tools) show turning points, and the latest signals regarding the Federal Reserve and major economies' policy paths. For ordinary investors, it is more important to be cautious about misinterpreting historical statistics as inevitable outcomes—the average 56% increase following negative correlation is merely a reference range, not a guarantee; the retreat of selling pressure and chip locking provide a probabilistic advantage, not a risk-free pass. In a market shaped by macro, political, security, and behavioral finance factors, the beginning of a cycle often becomes clearer only in hindsight, and what can be done now is to cautiously arrange one's risk tolerance and position rhythm based on an understanding of these signals.
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