Bitcoin experienced significant fluctuations after the CPI data was released last night. The overall inflation data was relatively mild, leading to a noticeable increase in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in April. The dollar weakened, risk appetite rebounded, and funds quickly flowed back into risk assets. After breaking through 93,000, BTC did not retest for confirmation but continued to rise directly. During the US trading session, bullish sentiment was completely ignited, and it surged rapidly in the early morning, briefly breaking above 96,000. However, selling pressure at high levels soon emerged, and the price quickly retreated, currently oscillating around 95,300. In the short term, it has entered a high-level turnover digestion phase, and overall, it remains in a strong consolidation structure.
On a macro level, the CPI data reinforced the market's bets on an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve (April window), and the improvement in liquidity expectations is the core driving factor behind this round of crypto rebound. However, Trump's ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve is still fermenting, intensifying the policy game, and concerns about "monetary policy independence" have not completely dissipated. Between bullish expectations and uncertainty risks, the market is characterized by rapid rises and washes, with a relatively urgent rhythm.
From a technical perspective, the upper Bollinger band for Bitcoin on the daily chart has been effectively expanded, breaking the previous consolidation range. The short-term moving averages show a bullish divergence pattern, and the trend structure has clearly strengthened; the four-hour level is also in a bullish arrangement, with momentum bars continuing to expand, indicating that bulls are in control. However, from the hourly level, indicators have entered the overbought zone and are starting to turn, showing a clear need for correction. In the short term, a pullback or sideways movement to digest profit-taking cannot be ruled out. Today, focus on the pullback and repair situation, with key support in the 94,000–93,000 area and short-term resistance in the 96,000–97,000 area, where there is still concentrated divergence between bulls and bears. However, with this round of increases approaching the upper resistance area, medium to long-term opportunities are also emerging.
Overall, the current structure leans towards a strong consolidation after a breakout, rather than an end to the trend. As long as the 93,000 level is not effectively broken, the bullish pattern remains valid, but it is not advisable to blindly chase after high prices.
Regarding Ethereum, this round of increase is also driven by liquidity expectations, with daily moving averages having turned into a bullish divergence. The four-hour indicators are leaning bullish, and the medium-term trend has clearly improved. However, it should be noted that this rebound has not effectively broken through the December rebound high, and selling pressure still exists at high levels, making it easy for funds to cash out.
In the short cycle, ETH's hourly level has also shown signals of indicator repair after being overbought, and a pullback for confirmation cannot be ruled out today. Key short-term support is in the 3,250–3,200 area, while key resistance is in the 3,350–3,400 area. Until an effective breakout occurs, it is still advisable to treat it as a rebound under pressure and oscillate, avoiding chasing high prices.
Today, pay close attention to the repair rhythm of the market, while also noting the impact of speeches from Federal Reserve executives in the evening on the market, which may trigger short-term fluctuations again.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jane Crypto (WeChat public account: Jane Crypto) and represents personal views only. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only; risks are borne by the reader. Trade with reasonable position control, and avoid heavy or full positions. Developing good investment habits can lead to a positive cycle!
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