Technology is merely a lever; it can amplify both welfare and destruction.
Written by: Ray Dalio
Translated by: Bruce
Merry Christmas to everyone (even if you are not a Christian)!
Yesterday was Christmas Day. While enjoying family time with three generations together, I couldn't help but reflect on the following points. These reflections focus on: the importance of principles as core assets, the definition of positive and negative externalities (good and evil), and the "fall into hell" caused by the loss of social capital.
I. Principles: The Most Core Intangible Asset
In my view, the most important asset in life is a set of excellent "principles," as they form the underlying algorithms for individual decision-making. Principles shape our utility function and its realization path. The most fundamental principles relate to our value hierarchy and even determine our game preferences in extreme games (i.e., beliefs for which we are willing to live or die).
Based on this, I conducted the following audit and reflection:
How compatible are our current codes of conduct with the doctrines of Christianity and other religions?
Do we have consensus-based contractual principles, or do we fall into a "zero-sum game" due to conflicting principles?
What universal principles can be shared as public goods by all humanity?
Where is the supply side of these principles?
How have these principles evolved over time with the advancement of civilization?
From a historical perspective, since the formation of human society, various regional civilizations have developed their own principles and religions in relatively closed living environments. Despite differing geographical contexts, the core demands of all societies are highly consistent: the need for a set of informal institutions to constrain individual behavior, reduce transaction costs, and achieve social coordination. These guidelines have been encoded in "scriptures." In other words, the origin of religion is to provide incentive mechanisms for social governance, guiding individual behavior towards collective optimality.
The vast majority of religions, whether they possess transcendental beliefs or focus on worldly ethics like Confucianism, consist of a mixed contract made up of the following two parts:
Social governance guidelines: interactive rules aimed at enhancing overall social welfare;
Supernatural assumptions: belief systems that transcend logical empiricism.
These supernatural assumptions (such as virgin births and resurrection) often lack empirical support when interpreted literally. However, when viewed as metaphors, they reflect their cross-cultural isomorphism. In contrast, the non-supernatural principles regarding "social cooperation" in major religions are remarkably similar. If we focus solely on the cumbersome forms and neglect these core incentive principles, religious festivals will degenerate into symbols of meaningless consumption.
Although I am not a believer due to my lack of faith in supernatural powers (I am reluctant to accept unverified a priori assumptions), I highly resonate with the evolutionary wisdom contained in religions. For example, "love thy neighbor as thyself" and "karma" actually embody reciprocal altruism in game theory.
From a mechanism design perspective, when individuals adopt a "give more than take" strategy in interactions, it generates extremely high value-added: the cost to the giver is often far less than the marginal benefit to the receiver. This accumulation of positive externalities creates a non-zero-sum "win-win relationship," significantly enhancing overall social output and welfare.
For me, "spirituality" refers to the individual's awareness that they are a subset of the overall system and their tendency to pursue system optimization rather than local optimization (i.e., extreme self-interest at the expense of overall benefits). This is not only a moral requirement but also a logical operation for efficiency. Unfortunately, this consensus value regarding good and evil is experiencing severe credit erosion in today's society.
Of course, I do not advocate for absolute peace. When it comes to irreconcilable conflicts at the level of survival, struggle is a necessary external constraint. However, the principle I suggest is: do not waste resources on supernatural assumptions or marginal trivialities, and never blur the underlying definitions of positive and negative externalities (good and evil).
II. Definition of Good and Evil and the Moral Attributes of Human Capital
What are good and evil?
In modern contexts, people often mistakenly simplify "good and evil" to "gains and losses to individual interests." From an economic perspective, "good" refers to actions that maximize overall social utility (positive externality), while "evil" refers to actions that harm the overall interests of the system (negative externality).
Evaluations of character are an extension of this logic. Good character is a psychological tendency asset that can commit to and achieve the maximization of collective interests; while bad character leads to social welfare losses due to weaknesses or deviant behaviors.
I firmly believe that there exists a behavioral model that can achieve Pareto improvements for both individuals and society. Although religious discourse systems differ, the admiration for qualities such as "courage," "integrity," and "temperance" is a global consensus, as they are necessary agreements for maintaining the operation of complex societies.
III. The Current Social Situation on a "Downward Trajectory"
I personally believe that we are in a metaphorical "hellish process." This means that most members of society have lost their anchor points regarding the consensus on good and evil, and this loss of consensus will lead to society paying an extremely high price (Hellacious Price).
More specifically, the consensus of our social contract is disintegrating. The current dominant principle has been simplified to pure self-interest maximization: absolute plunder of money and power. This shift in values is vividly reflected in cultural products: we lack models with moral appeal.
When bad behavior is packaged as a shortcut to success, and children grow up in an environment lacking the correct "incentive templates," the consequences are disastrous. Drug abuse, violence, suicide, and the widening opportunities gap are both symptoms and causes of the collapse of social principles.
Ironically, many believers throughout history have betrayed the cooperative principles in doctrines due to the struggle for supernatural interpretive power or personal gain. Due to this moral hazard, people, while abandoning religious superstitions, have also mistakenly liquidated the beneficial social norms within them, leading to an institutional vacuum.
Conclusion
Despite the exponential growth in technological advancement and productivity, I believe that technology is merely a lever; it can amplify both welfare and destruction. History has proven that innovations in technological means have not eliminated conflict.
The good news is: because our existing toolbox of technology is extremely powerful, as long as we can reconstruct a healthy set of principles regarding "mutual benefit," we have the capability to solve all systemic crises.
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