Introduction: From Macroeconomic Theory to Practical Allocation
The first part of this series focuses on building a high-level framework: stepping outside the confines of cryptocurrency, understanding liquidity as a core driver, and anchoring asset behavior within the macroeconomic cycle. However, such frameworks often face practical challenges.
Many investors find that while macro analysis sounds compelling, it yields little in actual decision-making. Interest rates, inflation, and liquidity trends seem far removed from the choices in everyday portfolios. This gap between theory and practice is the reason most macro frameworks fail.
The latter part of this series aims to address this shortcoming. The key is not to abandon macro thinking but to refine it by breaking down assets. Which assets adopt global pricing, and which adopt local pricing? This distinction determines how capital actually flows and why some markets perform well while others stagnate.
Attribute Decomposition: Why Pricing Mechanisms Matter
After mapping out the global asset distribution, the next step is to decompose assets based on their pricing methods. This step is crucial because capital is limited. When funds flow into one market, they inevitably flow out of another.
On the surface, cryptocurrencies seem to have no borders. They trade around the clock, unaffected by national exchanges or geographical constraints. However, the funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market are not entirely borderless. These funds originate from specific markets: the U.S. stock market, the Japanese bond market, the European savings market, or emerging market capital.
This presents an important analytical challenge. While cryptocurrency prices are global, their funding sources are local. Understanding this is vital. Where the money comes from is as important as understanding why it moves.
The same applies to traditional assets. Stock research must distinguish between U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, and European stocks. Each stock reflects different economic structures, policy systems, and capital behaviors. Only with clear distinctions can macro variables come into play.
Why Macroeconomics Often Feels "Useless" in Practice
One reason macro analysis is often overlooked is that people perceive it as disconnected from practical operations. When deciding whether to purchase a specific asset, inflation data and central bank speeches seem abstract and vague.
However, this is not because macroeconomics is irrelevant, but because its application is often too broad.
Excess returns do not come from isolating predictions of economic growth or inflation but from understanding how changes in the macroeconomic environment affect returns. Reallocating marginal capital among competing assets, market trends depend not on absolute conditions but on relative attractiveness.
When capital is scarce, it concentrates; when liquidity expands, it seeks opportunities everywhere. Ignoring this process means passively waiting for market narratives rather than seizing opportunities and leading market trends.
Studying macro trends allows investors to track the most favorable assets at different times rather than being stuck in inactive markets waiting for conditions to improve.
Globally Priced Assets: One Dollar, One Market
Some assets adopt global pricing. The implicit assumption behind this classification is the dollar as the world currency anchor.
Cryptocurrencies, gold, and major commodities fall into this category. Their prices reflect global supply and demand dynamics rather than the conditions of any single economy. Whether dollars flow in from New York or Tokyo, they exert the same influence on global prices.
This has significant implications: the indicators used to analyze these assets have a high degree of overlap. Real interest rates, dollar liquidity, global risk appetite, and monetary policy expectations often simultaneously affect all three.
Due to this overlap, globally priced assets are typically the most effective targets for macro-driven asset allocation. A correct assessment of liquidity conditions can yield returns across multiple markets.
This is the first layer of asset rotation efficiency: understanding when globally priced assets will benefit together from the same macro tailwinds.
Stocks as Locally Priced Assets
The nature of stocks is different. Stocks represent a claim on the future cash flows of specific economic entities. Therefore, even in the era of global capital markets, stock prices still have a local character.
While global liquidity is important, it is also influenced by significant local factors. Each stock market is affected by its unique combination of structural factors.
The U.S. stock market is influenced by global capital inflows, technological leadership, and the dominance of multinational corporations. Its valuations often reflect not only domestic economic growth but also the ability of U.S. companies to generate profits globally.
The Japanese stock market is highly responsive to currency dynamics, corporate governance reforms, and long-term deflationary recovery. Even mild inflation or wage growth can have a substantial impact on market sentiment and valuations.
The European stock market is more sensitive to energy costs, fiscal constraints, and regional political coordination. Economic growth is typically slower, making the effects of policy stability and cost structures more pronounced.
Due to these differences, equity investment requires deeper local knowledge than investing in globally priced assets. Macroeconomic trends lay the foundation, but local structures determine the final outcomes.
Bonds as Jurisdictionally Priced Assets
The bond market is more localized. Each sovereign bond market reflects specific currencies, fiscal capacities, and central bank credibility. Unlike stocks, bonds are directly related to a country's balance sheet.
Government bonds are not merely a tool for yield; they are a manifestation of trust: trust in monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and institutional stability.
This makes bond analysis particularly complex. Two countries may have similar inflation rates, but their bond market dynamics can differ dramatically due to factors like monetary systems, debt structures, or political risks.
In this sense, bonds are jurisdictionally priced assets. Their performance cannot be generalized across markets. Studying bonds requires an understanding of each country's balance sheet, policy credibility, and long-term demographic pressures.
Synthesis: Building a Practical Global Framework
By combining the previous steps with attribute decomposition, a functional global asset framework begins to emerge.
First, construct a panoramic asset map rather than focusing solely on a single market.
Second, identify macro drivers that can simultaneously affect all assets.
Third, understand each asset's position within the cycle.
Fourth, distinguish between global pricing mechanisms and local pricing mechanisms.
This layered approach transforms macro analysis from abstract theory into a decision-making tool.
Why Cryptocurrencies Remain the Best Observation Point
Although this framework applies to all assets, cryptocurrencies remain an exceptionally insightful entry point. Due to the lack of cash flows and valuation anchors, cryptocurrencies respond more quickly and transparently to changes in liquidity.
Recent market performance clearly illustrates this. Despite multiple rate cuts in the U.S., cryptocurrency prices often stagnate or decline. This has left many investors puzzled, as they assumed that easing policies would automatically drive prices higher.
The missing link is risk appetite. Rate cuts do not guarantee immediate liquidity expansion, nor do they ensure that capital is willing to flow into high-volatility assets. There is a critical distinction between existing funds and those willing to take on risk.
The driving force behind a cryptocurrency bull market is not "excess" funds but rather capital that is no longer afraid of downturns. Only when capital shifts from preservation to speculation is liquidity alone insufficient.
This also explains why predictions about the "future rise of cryptocurrencies" are often vague. The issue is not whether easing policies will continue but when risk tolerance will truly shift.
The Real Position of Cryptocurrencies in Global Portfolios
In traditional financial narratives, cryptocurrencies are often described as "digital gold." However, institutions treat them quite differently.
In actual asset allocation decisions, cryptocurrencies rank low in priority. They are neither a core hedging tool nor a defensive asset. They represent a form of liquidity expression at the end of a cycle—more attractive than idle funds but less reliable than almost all other assets.
Understanding this reality is not pessimistic; it helps clarify thinking. It explains why cryptocurrencies perform poorly during cautious easing monetary policy cycles but can experience explosive growth when confidence is restored.
Conclusion: This is Just a Framework, Not a Commitment
The second part has refined the structural foundation of the global asset allocation framework. It does not provide shortcuts or guarantees but offers a perspective to help us understand the true cycles of capital.
By distinguishing between global pricing and local pricing, and recognizing that cryptocurrencies depend on risk tolerance rather than narratives, investors can gain clearer insights into where opportunities arise.
The most interesting insights will emerge in subsequent phases—when this framework is applied to real-time data and capital flow signals. These meanings will be explored gradually, as value itself is embedded in the process.
The framework is just the beginning; the real work starts with observation.
The above views are referenced from @Web3___Ace
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