On December 25, 2025, in the early hours of East 8 Time, former Binance founder CZ once again emphasized in a post on X that "the true early investors buy Bitcoin in fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), not at historical highs." This statement quickly resonated within the community, combined with Binance's Christmas activities and red envelope interactions, shifting market sentiment from cautious observation to mild FOMO. In the absence of decisive macro or on-chain turning point data, this statement serves more as a signal of emotion and narrative rather than objective evidence that a trend has reversed.
The Emotion of "Hoping to Buy Early" and Re-emphasis on "Buying in FUD"
Around 08:46 on December 25, 2025, CZ reiterated his consistent viewpoint on X: when Bitcoin is at historical highs, many people think, "If only I had bought earlier." However, those who truly "bought early" did so not at historical highs, but during phases "filled with fear, uncertainty, and doubt." This statement directly binds "early" with "buying in extremely pessimistic emotions," reinforcing the narrative coordinates of contrarian investing in the market once again.
From January to December: Consistency and Subtle Changes in Messaging
As early as January 14, 2025, at 04:52:07 (UTC), CZ had made a similar statement on X: "Have you ever thought… 'I wish I had bought bitcoins early… ignored FUD'. Today is earlier than all the days to come." At that time, the market interpreted it as a long-term camp declaration of "it's never too late." The new tweet in December continues the main theme of "ignore FUD, stick to the long term," while emphasizing that buying occurs in fear zones, not during periods of extreme optimism. The difference is that the current community sentiment has shifted from extreme fear back to a more neutral volatility range, creating a certain dissonance between the slogan of "buying in FUD" and the actual market state.
The Buying Experience of 2014: The Time Cost Behind Long-Term Holding
CZ publicly mentioned that he bought Bitcoin in 2014 at an average price of about $600, and then the price fell to about $200 within a month, lingering in that low range for about 18 months. He has repeatedly emphasized that "almost every purchase was short-term trapped," choosing to smooth costs through risk control and gradually increasing positions at low points. This experience demonstrates that long-term holding can transcend cycles while clearly showcasing the real costs of prolonged floating losses, capital occupation, and psychological endurance.
Synchronized Actions and Brand Narrative of the Binance Ecosystem
As Christmas approached, the Binance ecosystem noticeably accelerated its activities on both community and product sides: red envelopes, lotteries, and giveaways frequently appeared in squares and groups, with users expressing that "tonight's red envelope grabbing made my hands sore" and "sleeping in the group to grab red envelopes." CZ himself also mentioned the KGST project on the BNB Chain on December 24 at 23:21:59 (UTC) and teased, "Guess what’s coming next?" Meanwhile, he proposed on December 24 to "completely eradicate address poisoning attacks" and claimed that the Binance wallet now supports the identification of malicious addresses. These actions collectively form a brand combination of "holiday activity + security upgrade + new on-chain assets." When prices do not exhibit extreme volatility, the platform's reinforcement of activities and sense of security helps stabilize existing user expectations and mitigate potential selling pressure.
How Does Capital Typically Move After "Big V Advocates Long-Term"?
In the absence of real-time on-chain and capital flow data, one can refer to historical scenarios where "Big V emphasizes long-term holding" (including statements from leading KOLs in past cycles). Capital typically follows three typical paths:
• Some panic sellers delay or abandon their sell-off due to emotional reassurance, leading to a decrease in short-term turnover;
• A portion of observing capital chooses to make small exploratory positions or increase holdings, focusing more on spot rather than high-leverage derivatives;
Structurally, such statements often serve to "slow down selling pressure and encourage buying on dips," rather than directly triggering large-scale incremental capital to enter unconditionally.
Historical Reflection of Contract Leverage and Liquidation Risks
When emotions are activated by "long-termism" rhetoric, the contract market often sees retail investors increasing leverage in one direction, which has been accompanied by concentrated liquidation cases during past severe fluctuations. Especially during periods of significant short-term price volatility, capital tends to amplify unilateral expectations while ignoring the risk of pullbacks. Historical experience shows that during windows where "Big V emphasizes ignoring short-term fluctuations," if leverage levels rise simultaneously, the liquidation chain under severe volatility will first target these emotional positions.
Typical Positioning Rhythm of Large Funds Compared to Retail "One-Time All-In"
From past public information and on-chain tracking, it can be seen that early or larger funds tend to use time-dispersed strategies: buying in batches over several months or even longer periods, sometimes hedging volatility with other assets. In contrast, ordinary retail investors influenced by the "buying in FUD" narrative are more likely to take a one-time heavy position or quickly increase their full exposure during a single pullback. Compared to batch buying, emotionally driven one-time bets are more likely to encounter significant floating losses during short-term price fluctuations, amplifying both psychological and capital pressures.
Cannot Simply Equate to "Institutions Have Fully Entered the Market"
From the current public information, CZ's statements and Binance ecosystem activities mainly affect the emotions and brand recognition of existing users, without direct institutional capital flow data to support them. For example, the briefing did not provide any hard indicators of a surge in spot ETF applications or large net inflows to exchanges. Without seeing substantial on-chain incremental capital and institutional position adjustments, interpreting this statement as "institutions have systematically entered heavily at this position" is not rigorous.
Community Emotion Shift from Fear to FOMO
The current community sentiment exhibits a representative characteristic: on one hand, some still worry about macro and regulatory uncertainties; on the other hand, more and more posts begin to reference CZ's early statements, using "today is always earlier than the future" to comfort themselves and encourage buying amid hesitation. Some users express their dilemma of "fearing missing out but also fearing further declines" in red envelopes and activities. This "half-believing but not wanting to fall behind" emotion is a typical sign of the transition from extreme fear to mild FOMO.
Holiday Activities as Emotion Amplifiers
The numerous red envelopes, lotteries, and peripheral activities during Binance's Christmas period may have limited direct impact on trading behavior, but they significantly shape the atmosphere. Holidays serve as a natural "risk dampener": users are more likely to overlook volatility risks in collective revelry, associating participation in red envelopes and interactions with "participating in the market." When platform activities overlap with the "long-termism" narrative from leading KOLs, it can easily create the illusion for some investors that "increasing positions now feels safer."
Celebrity Discourse and the "Suspicion Chain": From a Statement to Amplified "Implied Signals"
Around every statement from CZ, there is a prevalent "over-interpretation chain" in the community: a post about security issues may be linked to the platform's health; a light-hearted joke about BNB Chain assets might be speculated as "warming up for a big move"; a discussion about buying in FUD may be seen as some endorsement of the current price range. This "celebrity discourse—community secondary processing—trading signalization" chain often amplifies emotional fluctuations beyond the facts themselves.
When "Everyone Wants to Buy in FUD," Is FUD Still the Same?
The logic of "buying in fear" is inherently reflexive: as more people believe in this logic, the actual time window of "emotional panic and extreme price mispricing" is often shortened, and prices at higher levels will quickly receive buying support. The result is that future "FUD intervals" may last shorter, with higher price bottoms, while failed contrarian attempts will also increase.
Three Prerequisites for Contrarian Investing
In both traditional and crypto markets, for contrarian investing to be statistically effective, at least three points must be met:
• The underlying asset itself has a long-term positive expectation (e.g., supply contraction, enhanced network effects, etc.);
• Investors have a sufficiently long holding period to tolerate mid-term floating losses;
Missing any of these conditions, simply "buying when prices drop" does not constitute a replicable positive expectation strategy.
Extreme Bear Market Bottoms vs. Mid-Stage Pullbacks: Differences Between Two Types of "FUD Intervals"
Historical data shows that buying at extreme bear market bottoms (such as certain points in the last cycle) yields long-term returns and drawdown structures that are significantly better than buying during mid-stage pullbacks in the latter half of a bull market. The latter often occurs during tightening macro liquidity or rising regulatory uncertainties, and while it may also be accompanied by emotional FUD, it is not always the starting point for a new long-term uptrend. Treating all "price drops + emotional pessimism" as equivalent opportunities easily overlooks the significant differences in cycle positioning and macro environment.
Survivor Bias: The Stories We Hear vs. The Samples We Forget
We can clearly hear survivor stories like CZ's: buying early, holding long, and ultimately seeing significant asset appreciation. However, it is not easy to statistically account for the large number of investors who "held long" on wrong assets, in wrong cycles, or even on wrong platforms; their outcomes may be long-term hopeless recovery or even total asset loss. Elevating individual success cases to a universal rule of "as long as you hold long, you will win" is a typical survivor bias.
The Other Layer of "Every Purchase Gets Trapped"
CZ states that "every time I buy coins, I get short-term trapped," but he also emphasizes risk control and gradually increasing positions at low points. The key elements implied behind this include: having an upper limit constraint on total positions, expectations for holding periods, and capital preparations for the worst-case scenarios. If one only hears "being trapped doesn't matter, it will rise long-term" while ignoring position control and risk exposure management, the resulting practice will be a completely different and more dangerous strategy.
The Boundary Between FUD and Systemic Risk
Not all FUD is merely "emotional noise." At certain stages, what is termed FUD represents real systemic risks: rapid tightening of macro liquidity, fundamental changes in the regulatory environment, or security risks in key infrastructure. At this point, the market is pricing not only fear premiums but also long-term expectation downgrades. In the absence of judgment on macro and systemic variables, simply categorizing any negative news as "ignorable FUD" significantly underestimates the risks.
Bullish Perspective: Reinforcing the Narrative Puzzle
From a bullish perspective, CZ's recent statement is merely a reaffirmation of Bitcoin's long-term logic: supply contraction, inflationary pressures, institutional allocation demands, and other long-term drivers remain unchanged; the more short-term FUD there is, the more it is an opportunity to "buy the future at a discount." Coupled with holiday activities and security upgrades in the Binance ecosystem, bulls are more inclined to view the current phase as "further concentration of chips towards long-termism." In this narrative, short-term volatility is actively downplayed as "normal noise," which helps maintain holders' confidence.
Bears and Cautious Parties: Beware of Overheated Emotions and "Long-Term on the Lips, Short-Term in Action"
The more cautious viewpoint argues that such "Big V reassuring statements" do not always appear at absolute bottoms; more often, they occur during adjustment periods in volatile markets or even at stage highs. Coupled with the atmosphere being heightened by red envelopes and lotteries within the community, it can easily lead retail investors to be swept up in emotions without sufficient position and cycle planning. In their view, those who "speak of long-termism but whose position structure and risk control do not match" are often the most vulnerable link in the next round of severe corrections.
High-Leverage Players: The Old Problem of Liquidation Structure
Historical fluctuations have shown that leveraged funds, especially high-leverage short-term positions, are the first to encounter problems in a one-sided market. When the rhetoric of "ignore FUD, buy and hold" combines with the mindset of "wanting to amplify short-term gains," behaviors such as high-leverage contracts and opening positions without stop-losses increase. Once prices experience severe reverse fluctuations, this portion of capital not only fails to enjoy the so-called long-term logic but will also completely exit after a few liquidations.
Long-Term Funds Care More About Path and Volatility Structure
True long-term allocative capital (such as certain institutions, family offices, etc.) may agree with Bitcoin's long-term logic, but they often focus on two issues: whether the entry path is acceptable and whether the volatility structure is controllable. They pay more attention to the macro interest rate path, regulatory clarity, and the inflow of spot ETFs, rather than a statement from social media. In the eyes of such funds, CZ's statement is a piece of slightly noisy emotional puzzle rather than a decision-making basis for adjusting asset allocation.
Marginal Impact on Platforms and Ecosystem Tokens
From an industry perspective, CZ's active voice combined with Binance's actions in security and activities helps stabilize the platform's fundamentals, providing emotional support for the pricing of BNB and its on-chain assets. After seeing signals of "security upgrades + the founder's continued attention," users are more likely to extend their retention time and reduce platform migration behaviors. This emotional reinforcement is positive for the platform's valuation system, but it still needs to be distinguished from the long-term supply and demand logic of the underlying assets themselves.
Macro and Policy Scenarios: Under What Conditions is "Now Considered Early"?
From a macro perspective, if future interest rates enter a slow downward channel, liquidity conditions improve marginally, and regulation remains progressively clear, risk assets as a whole may welcome a repricing space. In this scenario, the current stage of layout may be viewed as "relatively early." Conversely, if interest rates remain high for longer or tighten beyond expectations, the market's pricing of risk assets may further compress, and the judgment of "now is early" needs to be re-evaluated.
Spot ETFs and Institutional Allocation: Key Validation of Incremental Capital
Another important condition is the funding data from compliant channels, such as changes in spot ETF scale and institutional holding reports. If relevant tools continue to see net inflows and the proportion of institutional asset allocation steadily rises in the future, it can be more confidently asserted that the current period is "a slow accumulation phase for institutions." Without seeing these hard data, it is difficult to rigorously provide a qualitative assessment of "early" or "late" based solely on community sentiment and KOL statements.
On-Chain Indicators and Concentration of Holdings: Structural Signals
On the on-chain side, attention should be paid to the proportion of long-term holders, the number of active addresses, U-shaped transfers, and large inflow and outflow behaviors. If the proportion of long-term holdings rises, while short-term speculative turnover accelerates with limited fluctuations in total market capitalization, it often indicates that holdings are concentrating in more patient hands. This improvement in holding structure can provide structural clues for "whether early layouts have advantages" more effectively than emotional slogans.
Leverage Levels and Liquidation Structures: The First Warning Line of Rising FOMO
During the phase of rising FOMO, the first thing to be cautious about is the leverage levels in the derivatives market and the distribution of liquidation density: if unrealized profits are concentrated in high-leverage long positions and liquidation points are too dense, any moderate pullback may trigger a chain liquidation. Once the leverage chain of emotional capital is broken, short-term prices may experience severe fluctuations far exceeding the changes in fundamentals.
Thought Framework for Different Market Scenarios (Non-Operational Advice)
In a high-volatility upward range, prices are hard to avoid sharp drops and rises; being "trapped" may just be part of the path, and the key is whether participation is under a bearable risk position; during a range-bound period, long-termism must face the reality of opportunity costs, as yields from other off-market assets will affect whether capital is willing to lock in long-term; in a scenario of systemic negative news, "FUD" is no longer just an emotional term but a challenge to the logical premises themselves. For different scenarios, what truly needs adjustment is the position structure and risk exposure assumptions, rather than simply applying the slogan "buy on dips."
Using Three Questions to Ground CZ's Story Back to Data
From an investment perspective, CZ's story can ultimately be broken down into three questions: at what stage to buy (cycle position and macro environment), how long to hold (time dimension and capital cost), and what size position to use (risk exposure and margin for error). "Buying in FUD" is more of a directional reminder rather than a complete strategy specific to timing, price, and position control.
Emotion and Rules: The Truly Controllable Variables for Ordinary Participants
For most market participants, what is controllable is not what CZ said or how short-term prices fluctuate, but whether they can adhere to the pre-established rules when faced with this information: position limits, stop-loss and take-profit principles, and phased entry and exit rhythms. Using quantifiable, executable rules to combat emotions is much closer to the underlying logic of professional investing than using another emotion to cover fear.
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