Recently, "Wu Says" summarized the predictions made by several major foreign institutions regarding Bitcoin's price in 2025 in an article (see the reference link at the end). The result is that so far, all institutional predictions have been proven wrong, with none accurately forecasting Bitcoin's highest price this year.

In addition, there is another piece of news that has sparked controversy:

It was discovered that the well-known financial company BMNR expressed the opinion in its internal paid group that Bitcoin and Ethereum would experience a significant pullback next year. This view is clearly contradictory to the public bullish stance of its leader, Tom Lee, who believes that Bitcoin and Ethereum will rise significantly next year.

Although some clarified later that the opinion from the internal paid group did not originate from Tom Lee, this inconsistency in statements still triggered a lot of dissatisfaction and disappointment among netizens.

Some articles even publicly questioned: which opinion should we believe?

In fact, it is almost impossible to continuously and accurately predict short-term market trends—this is a viewpoint I have consistently expressed in my articles.

Therefore, whenever I see some "big shots" casually predicting that next month/year, XXX will definitely rise to XXX dollars, I only take it as a gimmick and never treat it seriously.

Interestingly, these "big shots," especially many investors from Wall Street, seem to enjoy making such statements frequently, and they particularly like to make extremely exaggerated price predictions:

When the market is good, they dare to shout sky-high prices; when the market is bad, they dare to call for prices that seem almost to hit zero.

I am curious about who would believe their exaggerated price predictions? Do some people really believe these predictions and use them to guide their investment behavior?

Since these short-term predictions about market trends are unreliable, slightly more rational investors naturally do not need to take them seriously.

As for the article mentioned earlier that publicly questioned which opinion to believe, the answer is very clear: none of the opinions need to be believed; they can be taken as jokes and passed over.

Short-term predictions of market trends are unreliable because there are too many (including sudden and irrational) factors that can interfere with short-term movements. However, if we extend the time frame, all these short-term factors will eventually be filtered out, and what remains are the core elements that truly influence long-term trends. That is the fundamental basis of a project—this is the core factor that ultimately determines its long-term price trend.

In the past two years, I have not been optimistic about the trend of this market and have shown little interest. The fundamental reason is that the entire crypto ecosystem's fundamentals are weak, lacking sufficiently strong and out-of-the-box application ecosystems that can generate enough attractive real value.

Such a market is inherently unhealthy; even if it is occasionally given a few forced boosts, that is just a stimulant. Once the momentum fades, the market will slump even worse.

Fortunately, so far, the trend of this market has not been too exaggerated; Bitcoin has not reached those ridiculous price levels predicted by the "big shots," such as over $200,000 or $250,000. As for Ethereum, it hasn't even reached $5,000.

In fact, this is a good thing because the fundamentals of the crypto ecosystem's current trend appear to be this weak. Without good fundamentals, there is no need to force a good market.

It is better to reserve this potential for the next time, waiting for a truly strong fundamental outbreak and a powerful application ecosystem to emerge, and then have a vigorous bull market that lives up to the fundamentals.

Reference link:

https://www.wublock123.com/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=47&id=53949

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