Augur is one of the earliest prediction markets in the cryptocurrency field, and Joey is a co-founder. From this perspective, he should be one of the people most deeply aware of the changes in prediction markets. Let's take a look at his views on the changes in prediction markets:

In a recent interview, he shared the failures and successes of prediction markets:

He believes that Augur faced three major issues in its early days: low liquidity, poor user experience, and regulatory uncertainty, which ultimately led to a mismatch between the product and the market. At the same time, he believes that Augur has demonstrated the potential of crypto-native innovation but has also exposed the gap between concept and practicality: the constructions from ten years ago were "innovation theater," and now the focus needs to be on real needs.

He thinks the lessons to be learned are that prediction markets need to address the "oracle problem" (real-world data input) and user thresholds, rather than relying solely on the idea of decentralization; additionally, founders should avoid "premature decentralization," first building a centralized prototype to test the market before going on-chain.

Today, the reason Polyamarket has achieved breakthroughs, according to Joey, is mainly due to real-time event predictions (such as elections and sports) and high liquidity design, which have attracted non-crypto users. For example, it aggregates information more accurately than traditional polls, and the surge in trading volume during the 2024 U.S. elections proves its value as an "information market."

When asked whether prediction markets are just gambling, his view is that prediction markets are no longer just niche gambling but are risk hedging tools. For instance, businesses can use them for supply chain forecasting, going beyond the stereotype of "just gambling."

This marks a shift in crypto from speculation to practicality. Similar to the stock market, prediction markets have speculation, but the core is information discovery. Joey believes that if regulators view it as pure gambling, they will miss out on economic benefits.

In the future, the U.S. may require prediction markets to comply with KYC/AML regulations, limiting anonymous transactions; the EU and Asian policies are more friendly, but the U.S. leads global standards. Regulation is a double-edged sword; on one hand, clarity will attract institutions, but excessive regulation (such as banning bets on certain types of events) will stifle innovation. He suggests that prediction market projects proactively collaborate with regulators to avoid a "confrontational model."

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