Goodbye to mindless wealth accumulation, and delve deep into hardcore fundamentals.
Author: 0xJeff
Translation: Baihua Blockchain
The year 2025 is filled with unprecedented turmoil. Despite the arrival of a supposedly "crypto-friendly, AI-friendly" U.S. president, 2025 does not show a bull market, but rather a "mass slaughter" of the entire industry.
The vast majority of altcoins experienced a decline of 80%-99% in 2025.
Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) returned to levels seen in 2019-2020 (>60%), outperforming most other cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum's (ETH) trading price fell back to 2022 levels.
The altcoin market became extremely fragmented, with the number of circulating tokens reaching as high as 40 to 50 million.
Despite continuous positive developments in the industry (clearer regulations, ETF approvals, corporate adoption of blockchain, institutional entry, etc.), the performance of U.S. stocks completely crushed cryptocurrencies.
2025 is seen by many as the "year of maturity" for the industry, albeit accompanied by immense pain and the departure of many practitioners. For those who still hold on, it is essential to understand the following key points before moving into 2026:
1. Prediction Markets are Universal Tools
Prediction markets are the fastest-growing vertical in 2025. Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion dominated this field, with weekly nominal trading volume surpassing $3.8 billion for the first time.
Regulatory Positioning: The CFTC views them as "event contracts" or "binary options" based on real-world event outcomes. This innovation-friendly stance has led to a surge in trading volume.
Trading Flexibility: Prediction markets are extremely comprehensive. They can serve as better user experience options tools, allowing you to go long/short, hedge risks, or engage in risk-free arbitrage (Delta-neutral) while claiming airdrop rewards by hedging between "yes/no".
2. Cash-Secured Puts and Covered Calls
These are two strategies well-suited for conservative investors, aimed at managing assets in a more responsible manner.
Strategic Advantages: Instead of blindly bottom-fishing or cutting losses, you can earn cash flow (premiums) by selling options. If the price hits your target, you passively bottom-fish or take profits; if it doesn't, you earn high interest and reclaim your principal.
Applicable Scenarios: This is one of the best ways to earn high annualized returns (APR) on stablecoins or altcoins. The only cost is that the principal will be locked for 3-5 weeks.
3. Narrative Fatigue + Equity vs Token = Return to Fundamentals
The speed of narrative rotation is extremely fast; narratives that used to last for months can now only sustain for a few days. Market focus is shifting from "storytelling" to "real fundamentals" (user numbers, revenue, growth metrics) and the value capture between tokens and businesses.
Conflict between Equity and Token: 2025 saw several M&A farces. For example, Pump.fun acquired Padre and Circle acquired Axelar, both leading to token holders being sidelined, causing price crashes and community outrage.
Lessons Learned: The market is beginning to realize that if revenue flows to equity holders rather than token holders, then such tokens are "unsustainable".
4. Market Governance Organizations (MGOs) and "Ownership Tokens"
MetaDAO introduced a fair, transparent, and un-ruggable ICO model: high liquidity, low fully diluted valuation (FDV), and no VC-raised shares.
Core Concept: Through on-chain governance and performance unlocking, token holders gain true ownership and control, addressing issues of "rug pulls," malicious sell-offs, and opaque operations.
Trend: This model has given rise to "Ownership Tokens". Projects like Umbra and Omnipair have performed excellently after crowdfunding through MetaDAO. In 2026, the status of token holders will significantly improve, no longer just being "exit liquidity".
5. The Rise of Tokenized Securities (RWA)
As on-chain liquidity becomes constrained, everyone is focusing on revenue. On December 11, 2025, the SEC's issuance of a "No-action letter" cleared some obstacles for tokenized securities.
Regulatory Dividend: Allows DTC (Depository Trust Company) to pilot tokenization of Russell 1000 securities, government bonds, and major ETFs.
Future Outlook: Starting in 2026, we will see more regulated tokenized stocks and financial instruments, truly bridging TradFi (traditional finance) and DeFi.
6. Consumer Crypto and Perpetual Contracts are Core
Product Logic: Cryptocurrencies inherently possess a gaming and competitive nature. Pump.fun, Virtuals (AI agents), and Zora (content coins) have proven that consumer products that combine entertainment and profit effects stand out the most.
Data Evidence: The trading volume of prediction markets and perpetual contracts (Perps) reached historical highs in 2025 (with monthly Perps trading volume hitting $1.3 trillion). This proves the real demand in the market.
Advice: Either invest in these platforms or become a deep participant. Learn to trade Perps, engage in prediction markets, and use these products; this is where the search for market "Alpha" lies.
7. Become a "Storyteller"
This is not just about "shouting orders". The world (including Wall Street and Silicon Valley) is realizing the importance of brand communication and positioning.
Specialization Trend: The market is flooded with numerous "parrots" mechanically replicating content for points, leaving a vast space for "professional storytellers" who truly understand technology, have insights, and can articulate complex logic clearly.
Personal Value: Excellent storytellers can not only build personal brands but also be "talent-acquired" by top startups.
Conclusion: The Shift in Underlying Logic
2024-2025 felt like playing Monopoly, filled with speculation and bubbles.
2026 will enter the "corporatization" era. There will be less bubble, less "mindless rise" narratives, replaced by fundamentals, value capture, and compound leverage.
If you do not cultivate your real edge—whether it is storytelling ability, trend-catching ability, or deep understanding of products—regardless of whether you are an old investor, you will ultimately become exit liquidity.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/12/6170.html
Source: https://x.com/0xJeff/status/2001886024725918160
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